For 20 years, the SPD has provided the governing mayor of Berlin – from Wowereit to Müller to Giffey. For a long time, the CDU seemed to have no chance in the metropolis. But now the problems are so great that a wave of dissatisfaction could wash top candidate Wegner into the Red Town Hall.
When visitors to Berlin board the train home, they often say: “Nice for a weekend, but living here, no thanks”. Until a few years ago, (choice) Berliners smiled mildly at visitors when they made their way back to the provinces – which from Berlin’s point of view, of course, encompasses the rest of Germany. But such arrogance can hardly be sustained.
Because the problems of the growing capital are becoming ever clearer: rents are skyrocketing, the citizen registration offices are overburdened, educators and teachers are giving the city a wide berth. There are also embarrassments: After the BER disaster made Berlin ridiculous, it is now the repeat election next Sunday. This is not the only reason why the frustration in Germany’s largest city is now so great that what seemed impossible for years is possible: the CDU could become the strongest party.
Appropriately enough, the CDU’s top candidate, Kai Wegner, is campaigning with the motto “Berlin has to work” and is putting his finger in the wound. The election has to be repeated because some polling stations ran out of ballot papers and opening hours in some places were arbitrarily extended by election workers. In addition, the organizers had apparently overlooked the fact that the marathon was taking place at the same time and important traffic axes were blocked off – which made it so difficult to supply ballot papers. People in the rest of the country slapped their foreheads like Berliners. One was “poor but sexy”, not incapable and provincial.
Humility in front of the citizen office
The citizens’ offices are a topic of constant frustration. Although the situation has improved somewhat, Berliners still have to humbly accept every appointment the internet throws at them. Even if the Citizens’ Registration Office offering it is 20 kilometers away in another district. The schools have a miserable reputation, teachers go on strike regularly and can do so because many of them, unlike in all other federal states, are not civil servants, the kindergartens are desperately looking for staff. This also avoids Berlin because average earners can hardly afford nice apartments in the city. Which also has its own reasons: the SPD-led city overlooked the city’s growth for a long time and sold off the state-owned apartments in the Wowereit era.
Recent polls put the Union ahead. According to Civey’s survey on behalf of the “Tagesspiegel”, 24 percent want to vote for the party. But for the way to the Red Town Hall, CDU top candidate Wegner needs more than just first place. In the party landscape, he is surrounded by opponents. The Union rules out coalitions with the AfD and the left anyway. The FDP is no longer a natural partner: it will not be enough for black and yellow anyway and life for the CDU would be easier if the Liberals failed at the five percent hurdle, because then two-party alliances would be more likely.
Stay SPD and Greens. Both would probably have the option of simply continuing with red-green-red. But Wegner obviously hopes that the governing mayor Franziska Giffey would rather work with him than with the left. Already in the last election campaign, the SPD state leader favored a traffic light coalition against red-green-red. Wegner recently told the Berlin Tagesspiegel that he was a “fan” of two-party alliances. The only condition he set for the SPD was an administrative reform. That’s exactly what Giffey has written on the flags anyway, so there could be a common denominator.
Who with whom?
The housing issue could be the deciding factor. Berlin is arguing about whether housing groups should be nationalized. Left and Greens are in favor of implementing a corresponding referendum. There is sympathy in the SPD, but Giffey is clearly against it. Born in Brandenburg, she justified this by saying that she grew up in the GDR and knew the negative consequences of such ventures firsthand. And very practically with the fact that Berlin could face bankruptcy in view of the allegedly immense compensation payments.
Wegner is already waiting with open arms. The question is what Giffey does if the SPD does poorly. Does she resign? It would then be complicated for black and red, because the Berlin state association of the SPD is much further to the left than the government. Without Giffey as a bridge builder, the gap to the Union would be particularly wide.
Wegner doesn’t exactly make advances to the Greens. So he gave their traffic plans a rejection. That weighs heavily, because traffic is a top issue in a city where everyone is either constantly stuck in traffic jams, waiting for the rail replacement service or fearing for their lives on the bike. The Greens want to sacrifice parking spaces in favor of cycle paths and are flirting with banning combustion engines from the inner districts from 2030. Wegner told the Tagesspiegel that he had no problem being seen as the “patron saint of motorists”. There is also a cross on other issues, for example in education policy – and in dealing with the many Berliners with a migration background.
Get the popcorn ready
Exactly on the latter question, Wegner himself has already trampled down the little plants of black-green perspectives, whether intentionally or unintentionally – in the debate after the New Year’s Eve riots in Berlin. Wegner’s CDU demanded a list of the suspects’ first names and took a hard right turn. From the point of view of the Greens, the CDU was fueling general resentment against people with a migration background. Wegner tries to counter this criticism by claiming that first names are needed in order to be able to do better prevention programs against youth violence.
Should the CDU actually become the strongest force, it depends on how big the lead over the rest of the field is. The clearer that is, the less communicable it would be to form a coalition that would ignore the election winner, and the more pressure the SPD and Greens would have to talk to the Union. So it’s exciting enough to put the popcorn next to the microwave.