There is little suspense regarding this Thursday’s big event, the Governing Council of the European Central Bank (ECB). The announcement of the monetary policy decision will be made at 2:15 p.m. and Christine Lagarde will speak, in her capacity as president of the institution, during her traditional press conference at 2:45 p.m.
“The ECB has already announced it, it will maintain the restrictive course it has had since the summer and will probably raise its key rates by three quarters of a point on Thursday as in September, from 1.25% to 2%, a level that they have not known since 2009. The movement is, in fact, widely expected and, in the absence of an update of its quarterly forecasts, it is on the communication about its future policy that the ‘Warning “, commented in a note the economist Véronique Riches-Flores, founder of the firm Riches Flores Research.
The opportunity to raise the question of the reduction of the balance sheet of the institution? Communication along these lines could influence “the perception of the markets on a more or less restrictive character of the posture of the ECB. [Mais] faced with an inflation that it considers largely out of control, it seems however unlikely that the Governing Council will leave much room for the reflationary overbidding of the markets of recent days”she adds.
And at the Cac 40?
In addition to this monetary policy meeting, the day will be animated by new quarterly publications, including six within the Cac 40. TotalEnergies will publish its third quarter results: the publication should be “historic”, against a backdrop of a sharp rise in energy prices and in a tense social context within the group. STMicroelectronics will lend itself to the same exercise, for which the FactSet consensus expects a turnover of 4.3 billion dollars (+22.3%). Details on the chipmaker’s production capabilities will be awaited.
As for quarterly turnover, the markets will watch four in the flagship index. Re Capgemini, forecasts point to a slowdown in the second half. However, the group is well positioned to take market share in Europe. At the house of Danonethe objectives of internal growth of 5% to 6% and an operating margin of at least 12% will be scrutinized, due to current inflation. Schneider-Electric will be required to provide clarification on its indictment with Rexel and Legrand regarding an alleged price fixing. Saint Gobain will have to prove that its positioning offers real protection against recession, even though the construction player is considered to be subject to economic cycles.
In France, we are also awaiting the publications ofParis airports, Assystem, Aures Technologies, Balyo, bic, Cegedim, clasquin, Coface, EDF, Eramet, Exel Industries, GTT, LDLC Group, Samse Group, Hipay Group, Ipsen, Ipsos, Korian, Lagardere, Manitou, Houses of the world, MBWS, Mauna Kea Technologies, Prismaflex, Rexel, paref, SES Imagotag, Ubisoft, Valeo and Wavestone.
End clap for the Gafam
Big program also in the United States, where Wall Street will particularly await the publication of the results from Amazon.com and Apple, respectively for the third and fourth quarter. It will be after the stock market. The Dow Jones quarterly results program also includes Caterpillar, Intel, McDonald’s and Merck & Co. Finally, to close the agenda of international quarterly publications: Anheuser-Bush InBev, Credit Swiss, German Lufthansa, GlaxoSmithKline, Linde, MasterCard, Samsung and Shell.
Some statistics to note also this Thursday. In Germany, the Gfk index measuring the consumer confidence for the month of November should rise to -42 points (-42.5 in October).
Above all, across the Atlantic, at 2:30 p.m., we are waiting for the first estimate of the gross domestic product (GDP) of the third trimester. It is expected to grow by 2.3% over one year, against a decline of 0.6% in the second. The durable goods orders should have increased by 0.6% in September (-0.2% in August), as the unemployment benefit claims for the week to October 22 (220,000 anticipated, against 214,000 seven days earlier).