Despite the decline in the crypto market, however, Bitcoin price performed better in September than the major traditional finance stock indices. Since this summer, prices have tended to show a lateralization, thus fleshing out the argument as to a possible low point.
Bitcoin fares better than traditional finance
At a time when the global economy is expressing a sense of gloom, Bitcoin (BTC) can boast of having performed better than traditional finance in September. Although its price does not rise, it is nevertheless interesting to note that it is doing better than the main indices, by displaying greater resilience over the period analysed.
Thus, between the high of the day on September 1 and the closing price of the end of the month, the price of the BTC INDEX of TradingView registers a decrease of 3.84%.
By applying this same method to a few global reference indices, we obtain the following results:
- S&P 500 = -9.31%;
- NASDAQ 100 = -10.28%;
- CAC40 = -5.11%;
- DAX = -4.75%.
After a large part of the year where the fall of Bitcoin and other cryptocurrencies multiplied compared to traditional finance, since September, the asset seems to temporize. It now offers lateralization, supporting the low point scenario at $17,585the level of which was reached last June:
Figure 1: Bitcoin Price
The graph above also shows a sharp decrease in volatility since the successive falls. Arcane Research also observes that seven-day volatility has risen to 1.6%, and that over the past year, it has tended to rise again after such a low point:
Figure 2: Volatility of BTC over the past year
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Has the low point finally been found?
If the crypto market “Fear and Greed” index is still at an “extreme fear” level, we can still notice a stabilization since the panic of the beginning of the summer :
Figure 3: Cryptocurrency Market Fear and Greed Index
While several elements suggest that this famous low point is behind us, however, caution should be exercised. Despite the short-term outperformance against stock market indices, the crypto market is still very dependent on the sentiment of institutional players.
War and hyperinflation are always elements that keep the markets under pressure. Thus, the financial analyst Vincent Ganne, who intervenes from Monday to Friday on our private Toaster group, also called for caution:
“Inflation remains very high. In some countries, it is still accelerating. If it were to accelerate in the United States in October or November, it does not matter that the American economy creates fewer jobs or that the unemployment rate goes up a little, the FED will stay the course. »
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Indeed, despite all the good news on the crypto market and the technical advances of the various projects, the past has shown us in recent months that dependence on the American economy. Thus, if the FED chooses to continue its hawkish policy, through new key rate hikes, this lull could not last.
? On the same subject – Banks would only be exposed to 0.01% to cryptocurrencies, according to the first study on the subject
Source: Arcane Research
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I timidly discovered the world of blockchain at the end of 2018 during my quest for financial freedom. Initially invested moderately, it was only two years later that I took the gamble of betting everything on the movement that was taking shape then. I then dedicate 2021 to training myself better to acquire more knowledge and seriousness. As I often like to say: I still have a billion things to learn. And what I do know, I want to share with you.
Vincent Mayor
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