Bitcoin (BTC) can recover again after a bearish weekend. This means that the directionless sideways phase of the last few weeks of trading continues. The same is true of BTC dominance. So far, Bitcoin has not been able to sustainably move its dominance back towards 50 percent.
Bitcoin (BTC): decision on direction postponed
- BTC course: 34,589 USD (previous week: 33,675 USD)
- Resistance / goals: US $ 36,636, US $ 38,621, US $ 39,240, US $ 40,142, US $ 41,967, US $ 43,030, US $ 43,882, US $ 44,878, US $ 47,070, US $ 48,222, US $ 51,307 / US $ 50,305, US $ 53,005, US $ 54,077, US $ 56,867, US $ 58,386, US $ 59,527, $ 61,122, $ 61,771, $ 64,896
- Supports: $ 34,895, $ 33,335, $ 31,010, $ 30,000, $ 28,716, $ 27,563, $ 26,391, $ 23,887, $ 22,222, $ 21,892, $ 19,884,
Price analysis based on the value pair BTC / USD on Coinbase
As mentioned in the last Bitcoin analysis on June 16, a decision was made the next day that sent the BTC rate down again. Bitcoin hit the $ 30,000 and fell to the dollar to the bottom of the purple support area at $ 28,716. Only then did the cops start a counterattack. The buyer side heaved Bitcoin back over the 30,000 USD within a few hours and thus prevented a price breakout on the downside. The bulls used this false breakout to get bearish investors on the wrong foot. Another attempt to sell off at the beginning of this trading week also ended again at USD 30,000. In the last few days of trading, the BTC rate within the red flag formation rose again precisely to USD 36,643, before the BTC rate again trended south this Wednesday and is currently oscillating in the support area at USD 34,806. The decision on direction has therefore been postponed again for the time being.
Bullish scenario (Bitcoin price)
On the positive side, it was possible to defend the strong support in the USD 30,000 area. The task now is to confirm this relative strength and to win back the EMA20 (red) in the long term. For further increase opportunities it is now necessary to overcome yesterday’s daily high at USD 36,643. If the bulls manage to stabilize BTC above the horizontal resistance at $ 36,643, it is likely to climb to $ 38,621. The EMA50 (orange) is currently in the range between USD 38,621 and USD 39,240.
If the BTC price can break through this resistance zone, the all-important multiple resistance area is just a short distance away. In addition to EMA200 (blue), Supertrend and trend highs, the top of the flag can also be found here. For a sustainable resumption of the upward trend, Bitcoin must break through the range between USD 40,142 (EMA200) (blue) and USD 43,030. More hurdles await at USD 41,967 and the upper edge of the green resistance area at USD 43,030.
The resumption of the uptrend
Only when the bulls can break through this central make-or-break zone at the daily closing price increase the chances of a price increase to 43,882 USD (MA200) (green) and 44,878 USD. If these resistance levels are also broken by the daily closing price, the probability of a march through to the next relevant price target at USD 47,070 increases. If this price level is also overcome without significant resistance, the next price target is activated at USD 48,222. As a result, the chance of a walk through increases significantly up to 50,327 USD. A direct rise to the next strong resistance level at USD 51,307 is also conceivable.
If there is no dynamic price rebound to the south, USD 53,005 moves into focus as the next target price. A rise above this resistance level activates further price targets at USD 54,077 and USD 55,817. For now, the maximum price target for the coming trading weeks is USD 57,998. As long as this resistance is not broken significantly above, a move towards USD 61,000 or even to the all-time high at USD 64,896 remains a wish for the bull camp.
Bearish scenario (Bitcoin price)
As mentioned again and again, the bears never tire of trying to push the BTC rate towards USD 30,000 or below. After an interim recovery that brought the BTC rate up to USD 36,643, the seller’s side tried again in the last hours of trading to push the rate back below the EMA20 (red) towards USD 33,335. Bitcoin is currently valued at USD 34,895 below the support line. That should be seen as bearish in the short term. If the seller succeeds in pushing the BTC rate back to the support at USD 33,335, the chances of another attack on the lower edge of the trend channel increase. If this is subsequently fallen below again, the support at USD 31,010 and USD 30,000 will come back into focus. A fifth attack on the $ 30,000 would then increase the likelihood of another outbreak scenario on the downside.
Once again, at USD 28,716 it would be decided whether the bears will succeed this time in correcting Bitcoin to the next price target at USD 27,563. If this support level is also dynamically undershot as a result, a fallback to the 38 Fibonacci retracement at USD 26,391 should be planned. If the bulls give up this support on a sustained basis, a correction widening to around USD 23,887 is likely. At what level the bulls will then strike back is currently difficult to predict. Without a clear countermovement back above USD 30,000, however, a price collapse into the strong support area between USD 22,222 and USD 21,892 must be planned. From a technical chart point of view, a consistency test of the old breakout level at USD 19,884 cannot be ruled out.
Bitcoin dominance: Dominance still below 50 percent
Bitcoin dominance based on values of Cryptocap shown
Since the last dominance analysis on June 16, Bitcoin’s market power was able to develop positively in the following days. The BTC dominance rose to a peak of 48.23 percentage points. The dominance of the crypto reserve currency thus reached the lower edge of the downtrend channel before correcting again. As a result, market power fell back below the resistance level at 47.03 percent. Bitcoin’s market dominance is now again trading above its moving average lines EMA20 (red) and EMA50 (orange). These are currently at 46.13 percent. As long as the BTC dominance does not fall back below this cross-support at the daily closing price and falls below 45.71 percent, the chance of an increase prevails. The goal would then be at least the 48.67 percent mark. This resistance level, derived from the high of May 23rd and the upper Bollinger Band, will play a key role in the coming days.
BTC Dominance: Bullish Scenario
If the BTC dominance defends the area between 46.13 percent and 45.71 percent, another increase towards 48.27 percent is likely. If the BTC dominance can subsequently stabilize again in the downtrend channel and break through the 48.67 percent dynamically, a break through to the upper edge of the orange resistance area at 50.01 percent should be planned. If the increase to the 50.00 percent mark succeeds, an increase to the next target price of 52.19 percent is probable. The upper edge of the downtrend channel can currently also be found in the area around 52 percent.
If this cross-resistance can be overcome without a setback back below the psychological 50 percent mark, a continuation of the trend up to 53.16 percent is conceivable. If the BTC dominance then breaks through this resistance area and does not bounce back south at the EMA200 (blue) at 53.50 percent, the horizontal pink resistance line at 54.23 percent comes into focus. However, only when this resistance level is also left behind by the daily closing price, the BTC dominance should generate further upward momentum. Then the 55.72 percent would first come into focus. As a result of this stabilization, a march through to the blue resistance area between 57.12 percent and 58.01 percent should be planned in the medium term. First of all, however, it is still important to climb back into the downtrend channel and recapture the 50 percent mark. Only then could the BTC dominance find its way back to its old strength in perspective.
BTC Dominance: Bearish Scenario
Should the BTC dominance weaken again and fall again below the cross support at 46.13 percent at the daily closing price, the probability of a new test of 45.71 percent increases. If this chart mark is also abandoned, a directional decision will be made in the area of the previous week’s low at 44.99 percent. If the Bitcoin dominance subsequently falls dynamically below the last low, there is a threat of a correction widening to at least 44.19 percentage points. This chart level was relevant several times in the past trading weeks. The lower Bollinger band can also be found here. If this support mark is given up again, the downward trend will noticeably increase again. A correction widening back to the blue horizontal support line at 43.18 percent is likely. If the BTC dominance does not turn north again and forms a new low, the consolidation expands to at least 42.27 percent or even to the monthly low of 41.22 percent.
Bitcoin dominance of 30 percent is conceivable
If these support levels do not hold up either, an expansion of the correction back to around 40 percent should be planned. The bulls were able to turn things around at this important support brand in May. However, if the BTC dominance continues to lose its hold and sustainably undercut the 40 percent, a decision will be made at the annual low at 39.66 percent at the latest whether the crypto key currency will continue to lose market power in the medium term. If there is no clear reversal, a correction expansion into the green support zone is likely. The market dominance should then continue to decline and aim for the maximum bearish price target of 37.67 percent. This chart mark is derived from the multi-year low in January 2018. If there is no clear countermovement here, a relapse to the psychological mark of 30 percent is even conceivable.
Disclaimer: The price estimates presented on this page do not constitute buy or sell recommendations. They are only an assessment of the analyst.
The chart images were created using TradingView created.
USD / EUR exchange rate at the time of going to press: 0.84 euros.