The month of March is coming to an end and with it the episode of banking stress which has seen the market arbitrate between the different asset classes. Bitcoin is among the winners and is now showing an increase of more than 70% since the beginning of the year. The market faces major resistance at $29,000 as another monthly technical close looks set.
The price of bitcoin has appreciated by more than 70% since the start of the year
The month of March on the stock market is coming to an end and it goes without saying that it will go down in the financial annals with an episode of banking difficulties that is probably not over. The failures of the regional banks of the United States at the beginning of the month caused the major Central Banks (the FED to tell you the truth) to pull out the heavy artillery with its balance sheet and to pour billions of dollars to avoid a partial collapse of the financial system. .
In this sequence of “banking stress”, Bitcoin (BTC) played at full speed in its historic cap as an alternative system to the traditional banking system, at least in the narrative that was put forward by the community.
Looking back, keep in mind that BTC’s bullish performance originated in January, when the market was able to re-enter $20,000, the ex-ATH of January 2018 and key level for the blockchain bitcoin.
Then, the FED’s new monetary policy expectations, the fall in inflation and therefore the banking shock combined to build an annual bullish performance of more than 70% which put the followers of the bearish theory in great difficulty. were aiming for the long-standing $10,000.
Bitcoin price is now testing the technical resistance at $29,000, which can be seen as the last argument of the bear camp, their last chance to ultimately win. If this resistance is overwhelmed, then the bearish scenario will be invalidated for good.
As for the bullish camp, it still lacks two elements to claim victory and call for a bull run. The first is the launch of the altcoin season and the second is the return of institutional trading volume which is still too light (for my taste admittedly).
Table which comes from TradingView and which offers the heatmap of the crypto market since the 1er January 2023
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The new chart close in monthly data could be favorable
The month of March is therefore over and, like every end of the month, chart analysts can take note of a new chart close in monthly data, the scope of which concerns the long term.
I already had the opportunity a month ago to comment favorably on the February monthly closing; that of March looks just as favorable with the confirmation of the upward trend reversal above 20,000 dollars. The mass is not yet said when these lines are written, but it is necessary to monitor the monthly RSI technical indicator which could, if the God of cryptos wills, exceed the level of 50. If such a signal is given, then the rise will continue towards $35,000.
Chart that shows Japanese candles in monthly bitcoin price data
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Vincent Ganne is a market strategist, technical analyst, trainer on the stock market and speaker on BFM Business. With a long experience in the field of analysis, he offers a global approach to financial markets. Both from a macroeconomic point of view and from a microeconomic point of view. Vincent Ganne also uses many aspects of chart analysis with the aim of forecasting trends in financial assets over the medium and long term.
Vincent Gane
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