Blockade of Nagorno-Karabakh: “Azerbaijan wants to create facts in the shadow of the Ukraine war”

For months, Azerbaijan has been blocking deliveries to the Armenian-inhabited region of Nagorno-Karabakh, and it is now clear that the goal is ethnic cleansing: the Azerbaijani side’s methods boil down to “making the Lachin corridor a one-way street,” says the political scientist Nadja Douglas. “Appeals are not enough. Nevertheless, the world community is basically just watching.” The previous regional regulatory power, Russia, has a similar motive to the West in remaining inactive in this conflict, says the expert.

ntv.de: For a few weeks now, Azerbaijan has been completely blockading Nagorno-Karabakh, which is inhabited by Armenians. Neither medicines, food nor fuel are getting through. Can you tell how the residents of the region are doing?

Nadja Douglas: Nagorno-Karabakh is now largely isolated from the outside world, so I only have indirect information. But the situation seems to be getting more and more critical. A blockade by so-called environmental activists began in mid-December, and it soon became clear that they were in fact actors cooperating with the Azerbaijani authorities. In April, Azerbaijan established a checkpoint on the Lachin Corridor connecting Armenia with Nagorno-Karabakh. Since then, the humanitarian situation has deteriorated, but at least there was still limited movement of people and goods. Since mid-June not even the aid deliveries from the International Committee of the Red Cross have been able to get through.

Luis Moreno-Ocampo, the former chief prosecutor at the International Criminal Court, accuses Azerbaijan of wanting to starve the Armenians in Nagorno-Karabakh. He saysthere are good reasons to call this a genocide. In your opinion, is that correct?

One has to be very careful with terms like genocide and genocide. In the meantime, however, it is no longer just the Armenian government that is talking about the fact that ethnic cleansing is taking place in Nagorno-Karabakh. In fact, the methods of the Azerbaijani side boil down to making the Lachin corridor a one-way street. It looks very much as if Azerbaijan wants to make the living conditions in Nagorno-Karabakh so intolerable that people are being forced to leave the region. Many have already done so, especially young people and families who see no prospects in Nagorno-Karabakh for themselves and their children.

The Azerbaijani leadership says that the Armenians in Nagorno-Karabakh could still let Azerbaijan take care of them.

That’s just cynical. Everyone knows that the region is not supplied by Azerbaijan. And that once you leave the region, there is no turning back. This is why older people in particular want to stay in their home countries. It is admirable how many Armenians endure in Nagorno-Karabakh. They don’t want to let their homeland bleed dry.

Is there no international pressure on Azerbaijan?

There were appeals, all of which had no consequences. In February, the International Court of Justice in The Hague ordered Azerbaijan to end the blockade of Nagorno-Karabakh. In mid-August there was an emergency meeting of the UN Security Council. And of course all diplomats around the world who deal with the region are extremely alarmed. But the appeals remain.

You think that’s not enough.

No way. That’s a lesson from the history of ethnic cleansing and crimes against humanity: Appeals are not enough. Nevertheless, the world community is basically just watching. There is the principle of the responsibility to protect, which should also apply here.

What exactly should the world do?

Of course, it is clear that the UN Security Council will be blocked by Russia in case of doubt. However, it should now happen that Azerbaijan is at least urgently requested to let at least the aid supplies of the Red Cross through. If in doubt, this would have to be accompanied by an ultimatum threatening the Azerbaijani leadership with concrete sanctions.

Actually, Russia has peacekeeping troops stationed in the Lachin Corridor. Why don’t they make sure that the population is taken care of?

Ultimately, Russia has a motive similar to that of the West for doing nothing: Azerbaijan has become a major economic player in recent years and is mercilessly exploiting its now even better position as a result of the Russian war against Ukraine.

How?

Azerbaijan is one of the few remaining economic partners for Russia. In addition, Azerbaijan is closely allied with Turkey, which has meanwhile become a vital partner for Russia – Russia will be careful not to alienate Turkey by taking sides with Armenia. Well, and as we all know, last year the European Commission, in a desperate attempt to diversify its oil and gas supply, approached Azerbaijan and negotiated contracts that are a farce. From 2027, Azerbaijan is to supply the EU with twice as much gas as before. Even if Azerbaijan has enormous resources, it is perfectly clear that doubling supplies is only possible by Azerbaijan buying Russian gas and then reselling it.

This means that Russia and Europe are equally dependent on Azerbaijan.

This is really a problem. Azerbaijan is trying to create facts in the shadow of the Ukraine war. What it has not achieved through diplomatic channels for a long time is now to be achieved in small steps. Parallel to the blockade of Nagorno-Karabakh, Azerbaijan is trying to wear Armenia down by fighting on the demarcation line so that they can make further concessions in the peace negotiations that are taking place at the same time. Azerbaijan simply has the upper hand.

Does Azerbaijan also have economic motives in this conflict?

Yes. Azerbaijani President Ilham Aliyev has been pursuing a policy for quite some time “Corridor vs. Corridor”. He calls for a corridor through Armenia to the Nakhchivan region – an Azerbaijani exclave that lies between Armenia and Iran. The goal is not only a connection to this exclave, but also a land connection to Turkey. However, there is an important difference between the Lachin Corridor and a corridor from Azerbaijan to Nakhchivan: Such a land connection would cut through Armenian state territory, and Azerbaijan would effectively control the border with Iran, which is important for Armenia. In the end, it has to be said so clearly, Armenia is fighting for its survival here.

Unlike Azerbaijan, Armenia is a democracy, but at the same time allied with Russia and Iran. Is this conflict too complicated for the West? Or is Armenia just too unimportant?

Armenia is a small country, it is not of great economic importance, but it is located in a geopolitically very volatile region with difficult neighbors. So far, Russia has been the only protecting power that Armenia has had, even if the Armenians have probably lost confidence in Moscow in the meantime. Because it is clear that Russia can no longer or does not want to enforce the agreements from the ceasefire agreement of November 2020 with Azerbaijan. Russia is about to lose its role as a regional power in the South Caucasus, but that doesn’t automatically mean that it’s the West that will close the vacuum.

Hubertus Volmer spoke to Nadja Douglas