(AOF) – Good news for Boeing. Indonesia has lifted its flight ban on its 737 MAX model. A decision that comes more than three years after the crash of a plane of the airline Lion Air which caused the death of 189 people. In March 2019, it was the turn of an Ethiopian Airlines 737 MAX to crash under similar circumstances, killing 157 people.
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Air transport: a very gradual recovery
If the recovery of air transport is looming, the International Air Transport Association (IATA) has revised downwards its traffic forecasts for 2021.
In 2021, air traffic is expected to represent 43% of its pre-Covid-19 level, according to the latest forecast from IATA, which previously expected 51%. Not all companies will benefit equally from the takeover.
Gradual improvement
IATA estimates losses for the industry at $ 47.7 billion this year against $ 126.4 billion in 2020. The total number of passengers is expected to reach 2.4 billion in 2021, well below 4.5. billion in 2019.
The health crisis had a very significant impact on the accounts of European airports, which lost 70% of their traffic in 2020. They lost 60% of their income, or 29.2 billion euros. Unlike the airlines, they have benefited very little from state aid. Aid reached 2.17 billion euros, against more than 34 billion for carriers. Given the slow recovery, the major European airports will not return to their normal investment capacity before 2032. According to the Association of European Airports (ACI Europe), traffic will not return to its 2019 level before 2024 or 2025. During this period of recovery, the pressure on costs will remain high due to health measures and certain regulatory provisions.
Impact on business travel
Experts believe that low-cost, leisure-oriented airlines will benefit the most from the recovery. They are more flexible and less dependent on the reopening of international lines and the return of business customers. The business tourism activity suffered a collapse in its activity but it is above all faced with a complete redefinition of its model with the rise of virtual solutions and their low cost. This structural decline in business travel will have strong repercussions on airlines. According to experts, if 25% of the tickets on a flight are purchased for business travel, they generate 55% to 75% of airline profits.
The long way to the plane of the future
European Commissioner Thierry Breton wants to launch an alliance for “zero emission aviation” in order to prepare the necessary investments, identify possible obstacles and promote public-private partnerships. This alliance would be part of the European “Destination 2050” roadmap, with in particular the commitment to reduce CO2 emissions from air transport by 50%. The launch by Airbus of a first “zero emission” airliner from 2035 will be one of the flagship projects. A clear framework for the use of commercial aircraft operating on 100% biomass fuels, called biofuel, or hydrogen must be established. According to the European Aviation Safety Agency (EASA), the devices are currently only certified to fly with 50% biofuel.