The Bercy teams had been preparing the ground for weeks. But the executive procrastinated, waiting for a moment, if not politically propitious, at least relatively peaceful to announce what amounts to bad news: the French economy is showing signs of weakness. Bruno Le Maire, the Minister of the Economy, finally chose the middle of the winter holidays for this truth operation on the state of the French economy, by inviting himself to the 8 p.m. show on TF1 on Sunday February 18. “Growth is slowing across the world, particularly in Europe, with a significant growth revision in Britain and Germany, explained the number two in the government. And it is slowing down even more in China. All this has an impact on French growth. I will therefore revise French growth from 1.4 to 1% in 2024.”
A revision which will require 10 billion euros in additional savings this year and could justify a passage before Parliament, after the European elections, to present an amending budget “depending on the economic situation and in particular the level of interest rates, and the geopolitical situation”, he clarified. In the absence of a legislative text, the government cannot reduce spending beyond 10 billion euros through regulation, even if this offers the advantage of speed.
Bercy’s forecasts for 2024, which dated from the fall, seemed increasingly out of step with those of international organizations, almost all of which expected GDP growth of less than 1% for France this year, compared to 1.4%. in budget documents. Bercy, however, ensured that the correction shows a slight improvement compared to 2023. Last year, GDP actually grew by 0.9% according to INSEE.
“French growth is holding up better than other major developed countries”insisted Bruno Le Maire, recalling that France was not “not gone through the recession box in 2023”unlike some of its larger neighbors such as Germany and the United Kingdom, to which it is most often compared. “We estimate that growth in 2024 will be higher than in 2023he continued. In particular thanks to the measures to simplify business life, and the structural reforms which have been announced. »
New expenses have multiplied
These measures also aim to reassure the rating agencies, which will look again at the quality of the French signature in April. The objective of a public deficit reduced from 4.9% in 2023 to 4.4% in 2024 is thus confirmed. But the 16 billion euros in savings planned in the 2024 budget, adopted at the end of last year, and mainly resulting from the cessation of crisis measures, will not be enough. Especially since new spending has multiplied in recent days, including 400 million euros for farmers, and up to 3 billion euros in aid for Ukraine.
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