(BFM Bourse) – The Paris Stock Exchange gained a little ground this Monday. The CAC 40 increased by 0.22% to 8,040.36 points this Monday evening, at the start of a busy week in company publications and major statistics in the United States.
The Paris Stock Exchange begins this new week on a positive note, in the absence of an escalation in geopolitical tensions over the weekend. Calmly, the CAC 40 therefore closed up 0.22% at 8,040.36 points before numerous company publications on both sides of the Atlantic.
In Paris, investors will read an avalanche of publications with around twenty CAC 40 groups (Hermès, Totalenergies, Airbus, Renault to name a few) which will reveal this week revenues or complete accounts for the first quarter . In the United States, Microsoft, Alphabet, Meta, Tesla and General Motors will deliver their first quarter results.
Two different trajectories
In addition to these numerous company publications, investors will have to dissect a series of major macroeconomic indicators. In the United States, the first estimate of US GDP for the first quarter will be released on Thursday, ahead of the PCE price index – the US Federal Reserve’s preferred gauge of inflation, for March, the following day.
This data will be crucial for operators looking for clues on the trajectory of US Federal Reserve rates. The statistics published in recent weeks across the Atlantic demonstrate the robustness of the world’s largest economy, and have somewhat dashed hopes of a first rate cut from the Fed in June.
“At the start of the year, the market consensus was forecasting 6-8 rate cuts starting in March. Now, it is only forecasting two with a start in September… which could even be pushed back to December if the “inflation will not decline significantly between now and the start of the school year”, analyzes William Gerlach, regional director for France and the United Kingdom at Ibanfirst.
In Europe, the battle against inflation seems well advanced, with a harmonized consumer price index reaching 2.95% year-on-year in March. “Victory against inflation is on the right track,” declared François Villeroy de Galhau, governor of the Bank of France, speaking to France Inter this Monday morning.
“It is difficult to see what could prevent the euro zone from starting its cycle of rate cuts in June – as expected by the market. On the other hand, there remains uncertainty over the extent of the rate cut in 2024 The market is hesitating between three or four rate cuts of 25 basis points each. We are leaning towards three rate cuts,” continues William Gerlach.
Debt reduction on track for Alstom
On the value side, Alstom gained 2.25% after gaining more than 5% in the first exchanges. The group announced an asset sale for more than 600 million euros with its conventional signaling activity in North America. A guarantee given to the market on its deleveraging, even if this operation could have been anticipated by the market (which explains the weak reaction of the stock).
Edenred gained 2.7%, benefiting from cheap purchases after falling by almost 7% on Friday, the stock reacting to the legal developments in the investigation of which the group is the subject in Italy.
Dassault Aviation lost 1.4%, penalized by UBS which went from “buy” to “neutral” on the stock, judging that the potential good news is already integrated into the group’s price.
On the currency side, the euro lost 0.1% against the dollar at 1.0645 dollars. Investors are putting geopolitical risk into perspective, which is pushing down oil prices. The June contract on Brent from the North Sea lost 0.3% to 87 dollars per barrel, while that of the same maturity on WTI listed in New York returned 0.2% to 82.02 dollars per barrel.
Sabrina Sadgui – ©2024 BFM Bourse