(CercleFinance.com) – The Paris Stock Exchange should open without much change on Monday morning, investors adopting a cautious position while awaiting the Jackson Hole symposium, which comes in a context of questions about the evolution of monetary policies.
Around 8:15 a.m., the ‘futures’ contract on the CAC 40 index – which has now switched to the September deadline – fell by barely 1.5 points to 7183.5 points, suggesting an unchanged start to the week, or almost. .
The traditional end-of-summer meeting in Jackson Hole, which will bring together the main central bankers of the world from Thursday, will be dominated on Friday by the intervention of Jerome Powell, the chairman of the Federal Reserve.
With this meeting still very popular, investors are hoping for an improvement in general sentiment that will allow them to break with the current phase of risk aversion that is shaking the markets.
In Paris, the CAC 40 has increased by more than 10% since the start of the year, but has fallen by around 5.5% compared to its annual closing high of 7,577 points, reached at the end of April.
On Wall Street, the S&P 500 and the Nasdaq lost more than 2% last week, thus chaining a third consecutive week of decline.
‘The enthusiasm surrounding the resilience of the economy, the moderation of inflation and the emergence of artificial intelligence has not gone away, but it has been clouded by worries about global growth and the rise recently observed interest rates,” said Craig Fehr, strategist at Edward Jones.
The unknown that is the evolution of inflation represents a factor that seems particularly likely to push central bankers to exercise caution.
‘Powell should adopt a less nuanced speech during Jackson Hole from our point of view, knowing that the latest indicators clearly show a risk of rising inflation’, warn economists at BofA.
On the bond side, the yield on ten-year US government bonds fell back somewhat towards 4.25%, below its multi-year highs of last week, but remains at high levels.
The yield on the 10-year German Bund, the benchmark on the bond market in Europe, also peaked at 2.62%, which corresponds to a virtual doubling over the past 12 months.
The week in Europe will also be punctuated by the publication, on Wednesday, of the results of the monthly surveys of purchasing managers (PMI) on activity in the private sector of the major European economies.
Oil prices are on the rise, around $85.4 for Brent and $81.9 for US light crude (West Texas Intermediate, WTI).
Investors are worried about a possible succession of storms during a hurricane season which promises to be complicated in the current context of climate change.
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