(BFM Bourse) – Losing up to 3.5% at the low of the session after the new escalation of geopolitical tensions over the weekend, the flagship tricolor index reduced its losses by more than half to close lower by 1.39%, while the American indices also went up the slope.
With eyes still focused on the conflict triggered by Russia in Ukraine, investors are still trying to gauge the economic consequences of the ongoing war and the considerable tightening of Western sanctions against Moscow over the weekend. These are “tougher and more extensive than the most extreme sanctions we could imagine just a month ago. […] will almost certainly plunge the Russian economy into a deep recession,” noted JP Morgan analysts in a morning note. , etc.), risking fueling inflation. Initially very bumpy, with a 3.5% decline at the lowest point of the day, the CAC 40 nevertheless partly recovered at the end of the day, encouraged by the direction taken by Wall Street. The main barometer of the Paris market ended at 6,658.83 points, a relatively contained decline of 1.39%. The market was once again very active, with volumes traded exceeding 7.6 billion euros. euros.
Across the Atlantic at the same time, the S&P 500 was approaching equilibrium (-0.04%) and the Nasdaq Composite even gained 0.75%, assuming a slower than expected hardening until here from the Fed’s monetary policy because of the rising risks to the economy.
The international stance on the invasion of Ukraine changed dramatically over the weekend. The first sanctions package, decided last week, has been significantly strengthened. With Europe’s full participation as the dragging Germany “came on board and allowed arms sales to Ukraine, while massively increasing its defense budget,” notes Jeffrey Halley, analyst at Oanda. Russian banks have been cut off from the SWIFT network, the European Union, Great Britain and the United States have notably frozen the assets of Russian central banks, which means that they cannot intervene in the currency markets, resulting in a rush of Russian savers to the banks. The Moscow Stock Exchange has not even opened, and could remain closed from March 1 to 5 while the authorities are trying by all means to stem the flight of capital.
The ongoing geopolitical reconfiguration with the decision to assume a rearmament of European nations and to seek ways to drastically reduce dependence on Russian energy resources has highlighted a number of sectors. Stocks exposed to the military market were logically the first to benefit, such as Dassault Aviation (+7.9%) and Thales (+11.9%), but also lesser-known stocks such as CS Group (+7 ,1%), Egide (+22%) or even Cybergun (+41.3%), a specialist in replicas of recreational weapons at the start but which now generates a third of its turnover in the field of defense .
Alternative energy producers have also been sought out for their potential role in the quest for emancipation from Russian hydrocarbons. Among them in particular Neoen (+11.6%), Voltalia (+11.6% also), Albioma (+7.4%) or Agripower (+6.6%).
On the other hand, several growth stocks such as Dassault Systèmes (+4.3%) and Teleperformance (+1.5%) or Eurofins (+1.5%) took advantage of the prospect of a possible delay in the future. central banks in their attempts to raise rates
Nearly three quarters of Parisian stocks nevertheless remained in the red on Monday, the decline affecting more particularly groups exposed to Russia (-9.9% for Societe Generale, -7.5% for BNP Paribas and -6.6% for Renault).
Remarkably, the new surge in crude oil prices (+3.9% for a barrel of Brent to 7.75 dollars at the end of the day) against the backdrop of the prospect of disruptions in Russian supply did not benefit TotalEnergies, which on the contrary dropped 5.5%. The radical decision by Britain’s BP, which announced its complete withdrawal from Russia, even if it means erasing the equivalent of 25 billion dollars from its profits, seems to put pressure on its counterparts also present in the country to do the same.
On the foreign exchange market, where the Russian ruble was being rolled to a historic low, the dollar also benefited from its status as a safe haven against the euro (which fell 0.46% to 1.1220 dollars).
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