Cac 40: Which CAC 40 groups have best passed the test of annual results so far?

(BFM Bourse) – While a good half of the residents of the Parisian index have published their annual accounts, BFM Bourse takes stock. We have chosen as a barometer the reaction of the share price during the session following the announcement of these results.

Earnings season is in full swing. Now more than half (24) of the CAC 40 groups have published their annual accounts, with, for several of them, records in terms of profits and/or profitability. We will make a point at the end of the season.

Which of them did the best in this test? In an attempt to provide some answer, we have selected the stock market reaction of their shares on the day of the publication of their results (see infographics below), or the following day for companies which communicated their performance after the close of the market, such as LVMH or Michelin.

The impact of market conditions

Obviously this approach has its limits, like any indicator. The price action of the company may very well be affected by the market conditions and mood on the day. Dassault Systèmes, leader of our ranking, has certainly published excellent annual results. But its 12% jump came in a session where technology stocks were very well oriented, due in particular to lower rate expectations from the US Federal Reserve. Carrefour and its impressive cash generation comes second and STMicroelectronics and its reassuring prospects complete the podium.

It is to correct this effect linked to market conditions that we have both published an infographic (the first below) with the raw reaction of the title and a second in which we have calculated the outperformance or underperformance of the title compared to the evolution of the CAC 40 on the same day (in other words, if a share gained 4% over a session and the CAC 40 gained 1%, its outperformance is 3%). On this basis, Dassault Systèmes is still first, but STMicro is ahead of Carrefour.

Even taking this performance differential into account, the measurement remains imperfect. First of all because an index is by definition diversified and its variations are therefore often less volatile over a day than a given share. Then because it can happen that investors anticipate good results in advance.

TotalEnergies had seen its share jump 3.4% the day before its results, then regained 2.5% the day after the publication of its accounts, while the same day the value showed profit taking (-1, 9%). Another example: Publicis saw its results be welcomed on the day of their publication, but the value then continued to rise the following session, because certain analysts revised their estimates upwards, even their recommendations.

Note: we have excluded from our infographics, Alstom and Pernod Ricard, whose fiscal years straddle two calendar years, ending respectively at the end of March and the end of June.

By Julien Marion (text and data) and Théophile Magoria (infographics)