(CercleFinance.com) – The Paris Stock Exchange gained a timid 0.1%, around 7,535 points, despite increases in Schneider Electric, Legrand and Saint-Gobain (+1.1%).
Investors are awaiting meetings of the American Federal Reserve and then the European Central Bank (ECB), keeping investors on alert.
The major central banks recently ended their cycle of rate increases, but their more accommodating approach does not seem sufficient in the eyes of the markets, which are now demanding rate cuts from them.
A climate of wait-and-see should last at least until Wednesday evening and the publication of the Fed’s monetary policy statement, which will open the big monetary ball of the week.
Friday’s publication of better-than-expected employment figures for the month of November confirmed the scenario of a ‘soft landing’ for the American economy, easing some of the pressure on its shoulders.
The probability of a Fed rate cut in March is only estimated at around 40%, according to the CME Group’s FedWatch barometer, while this barometer estimates the scenario of maintaining rates at more than 57%. rate in March.
The situation is very different in Europe, where the European Central Bank (ECB) is being urged to do more in the face of an economy that is undeniably flirting with recession.
‘The markets consider that the first rate cuts could take place as early as March and that the ECB could make nearly six rate cuts of 0.25% in 2024,’ notes Alexandre Baradez, head of market analysis at IG France.
For the strategist, these expectations are probably too aggressive knowing that underlying inflation in the euro zone is currently hovering around 3.6%, still far from the 2% target established by the central bank.
The Bank of England, whose announcements are expected on Thursday as for the ECB, does not appear to be in any hurry to join the ‘doves’ camp either.
With central banks which do not seem ready to agree with current market forecasts, the return to reality could prove complicated for investors already in euphoric mode.
Beyond central bank announcements, the fall ‘rally’ will be tested by leading economic indicators, including the latest figures for inflation and retail sales in the United States.
In Europe, the preliminary PMI indices for the month of December – expected on Friday – will allow us to assess the seriousness of the recessionary threat on the Old Continent.
In the news of French companies, Alstom announced this weekend the inauguration of the Citadis Dualis tram-trains on line T12 of the Île-de-France Mobilités network which since yesterday has linked two major hubs in Essonne, Évry- Courcouronnes and Massy-Palaiseau.
Arkema announces that it has signed a 20-year contract with EDF Renewables for the supply of 20 GWh/year of electricity from solar energy, a partnership which will begin in 2026 and will cover 70% of the electricity consumption of the eight Bostik sites in France.
Saint-Gobain announces that it has signed an available credit line of four billion euros maturing in December 2028, including two extension options of one year each, which replaces two available lines of 2.5 and 1.5 billion maturing December 2024.
Copyright © 2023 CercleFinance.com. All rights reserved.
Did you like this article ? Share it with your friends using the buttons below.
