(CercleFinance.com) – The Paris Stock Exchange has turned the tide since midday: down slightly this morning and unable, like the day before, to initiate a rebound that lasts the distance, the CAC40 is finally recovering, after five consecutive sessions of decline .
The CAC40 index recovered at the end of the session by 0.6% towards 7,116 in skeletal volumes (2,850MnsE).
Wall Street had reopened lower but buyers prevailed with +0.4% on the S&P500 and +0.5% on the Nasdaq (despite Micron with -3%).
The fear of the effects of interest rates ‘maintained at high levels for a prolonged period’ has recently reduced investors’ appetite for risky assets (equities) due to their implication on growth (the ’10 years’ US is now anchored above 4.65% and has tested 4.688%).
‘The signals remain negative for the moment with the possibility of breaking the symbolic level of 7000 points,’ warn technical analysts at Kiplink Finance.
The first estimate of German inflation for the month of September comes out at +0.3% (same score in August) for an increase over 12 months of 4.5% (compared to 4.6% expected): not enough euphorize the Bunds which saw their yield explode by +13 Points to a new annual record of 2.962% (and 2.98% at the highest).
Our OATs also smash their peaks with +13Pts to 3.53% and Italian BTPs explode with +15Pts to 4.928% (4.96% at the zenith).
Today’s US figures do not lighten the mood on the bond market: unsurprising score for 2nd quarter GDP which is revised downwards once again, from +2.2% to 2.1% (definitive) .
The good news is that underlying inflation is falling to 1.7% compared to 2.2%… the bad news is that with a barrel of WTI at $95 on Wednesday evening, this decline will not not going to last.
The other bad news is that the job market – closely monitored by the FED which wants to see unemployment increase – remains very resilient: the Department of Labor reveals that registrations increased from only 2,000 to 204,000 last year. at the end of the week of September 23 (economists expected an average of 215,000 unemployment registrations).
Third bad news: the four-week moving average, considered a more reliable indicator of the underlying trend in the labor market, fell by -6,250 to settle at 211,000.
The markets’ attention will turn to inflation tomorrow with the publication of a first estimate of the consumer price index in the euro zone for the month of September.
Investors will then take note of the PCE index, a crucial measure of inflation in the United States, at a time when the price of Brent per barrel is dangerously approaching the threshold of 100 dollars (which propels TotalEnergie towards an absolute record at – beyond 64.5E).
On the oil market, Brent is now consolidating -1% towards 95.5 after peaking this morning at more than 97.6 dollars, a new high since the fall of 2022 (1% from the peaks of October 10 then the November 8, 2022), while WTI increased by 1.5% to $95, before falling back towards $93 (-0.8%).
Fears over rates have so far relegated to second place the threat of a shutdown of American administrations (‘shutdown’) starting this weekend.
Strategists warn that such a scenario could, however, have a severe economic impact as the United States is currently facing several headwinds (resumption of student loan repayments, automobile strike, rise in oil prices). essence).
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