(CercleFinance.com) – End of the semester much like the 6 months that have just passed: but after having fallen by up to -3% and retraced its annual low of 5,850 (from March 7/8 then from March 16 /June 17.) the CAC40 recovers a eu (-2.1%) and returns to 5,900.
The fact remains that the CAC40 has demonstrated all its vulnerability with -200Pts lost in 2 and a half sessions, all and even a little more of the gains since June 23.
And the monthly balance sheet stands at almost -10% (worst month since March 2020), at -13.5% for the quarter that is ending and -18.5%, in a context of general decline in European stock markets with -2.3% on the E-Stoxx50 (-20% annually), -2.4% on the DAX (-20.5% annually).
On Wall Street, the initial losses are reduced a little with -1.5% for the Dow Jones, -1.7% for the S&P500… on the other hand the heaviness intensifies on the Nasdaq with -2.4%.
In the United States, household consumption expenditure rose 0.2% in May compared to the previous month in the United States, according to the Commerce Department, a score clearly within the consensus which was betting on an increase of 0 .5 to 0.6%.
For their part, their income increased by 0.5%, in line with expectations.
Moreover, the annualized rate of increase of the PCE price index (+0.6%) remained at +6.3% in total data (but 7.2% at an annual rate); excluding energy and food, it increased by 0.3% against +0.4% expected.
Last figure of the day, the Chicago PMI index fell by more than 4pts in June to 56 against 60.3 in May (consensus: 58).
This morning, investors were able to learn this morning of a new rise in consumer prices in France over one year. Thus, the provisional estimate made by INSEE at the end of the month shows inflation of 5.8% in June 2022, against 5.2% the previous month.
This acceleration in inflation should be due to that of energy and food prices, while the prices of services should progress at the same rate as the previous month and those of manufactured goods should slow down.
In addition, French household consumption of goods in volume increased in May, after five months of decline (+0.7% after -0.7% in April, revised figure), according to data corrected for seasonal variations and days (CVS-CJO) of INSEE.
In Spain, inflation reached 10%, it remains above 11% in the Netherlands.
All these statistics should not fail to fuel the ongoing debate on the Federal Reserve’s rate hike, which is the dominant factor at the moment, but also on the growing threat of an imminent entry into recession.
‘The fears of a recession against a backdrop of higher key rates and high inflation were the watchword of this first half of the year’, recalls Joachim Klement, chief economist at Liberum.
‘It looks increasingly likely that the US, UK and Europe will end up in recession if central banks raise rates too steeply – which seems to be their preferred path at the moment current’, warns the analyst.
The only reason for satisfaction, the yield on ten-year US Treasury bonds continues to decline: -7pts to 3.022% against 3.26% at the start of the week in a context of risk aversion motivated by fear of a recession.
In Europe, sharp decline in OATs (-9pts to 1.9645%) and -13pts on Bunds to 1.3770%, -7pts on Italian BTPs to 3.4273%… but this should relieve equity investors (cheaper money) is on the contrary interpreted as a harbinger of recession.
In corporate news, securities that have underperformed are being cut to pieces on Thursday (half-yearly balance sheet dressings).
Automobile manufacturers and suppliers are crushed, banks are also suffering (Sté Générale -6.5%).
OVHcloud (-8%) reported revenue of 202 million euros in the third quarter, up 25.9%, of which 11.7% like-for-like (at constant exchange rates and perimeter and excluding the direct impacts of the Strasbourg incident).
Compagnie des Alpes announces that it has submitted a binding offer to the shareholders of the MMV group with a view to acquiring 85% of the capital of this second hotel operator in the French Alps, which notably operates 10 club hotels and 10 club residences.
Finally, Trigano (-9%) posted sales growth for its third accounting quarter of only 1.7% to 921.2 million euros, thus bringing the total for the first nine months of the financial year 2021-22 to 2.44 billion (+7.2%). The outlook for the 2nd half appears very poor due to shortages of spare parts.
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