(CercleFinance.com) – The Paris Stock Exchange has posted a moderate increase of +0.2% since the first exchanges and the scores quickly froze and no longer moved, even after the publication of PMI indices in slight decline in France but in recovery in the euro zone (none is above 50).
The 7270Pts serve as a pivot, a level which consolidates the gains of the month of November, one of those which will have had the fewest sessions of decline since prices were expressed in Euro.
The volumes are downright anorexic with less than 500MnsE exchanged in 5 and a half hours: this is very representative of the absence of activity which reigns when the American markets are closed.
They will stay there all day to celebrate the Thanksgiving holiday and there will only be half a session tomorrow (‘black Friday’).
The rating could also be affected by fears of instability in the Eurozone in the wake of the victory of Geert Wilder’s populist and anti-EU PVV party in yesterday’s parliamentary elections in the Netherlands (the leader ranked ‘highly right’ does not in reality have a majority and will have to manage to form a coalition which will not allow it to ‘roll out its program’).
The publication of the first results of the monthly purchasing managers’ surveys (PMI) on private sector activity in the euro zone economies will remain the main highlight of the session (no US statistics are expected before Monday) .
Activity in the private sector further accentuated its contraction in France in November, penalized by the persistent weakness of demand, according to the preliminary version of the PMI index published this Thursday.
The composite ‘flash’ PMI index measuring overall activity compiled by HCOB fell to 44.5 in November, compared to 44.6 in October, falling into negative territory for a sixth month in a row.
The preliminary composite PMI measuring overall activity in the euro zone, published by HCOB, recovered to 47.1, from 46.5 in October.
But the Hamburg Commercial Bank emphasizes that these data still point to a second consecutive quarter of contraction in GDP in the euro zone, synonymous with a technical recession in the region.
‘A PMI falling a little below 50 points does not inevitably lead to a relapse into recession but it is a worrying signal’, however temper the analysts at Oddo BHF.
‘Last year, after the surge in energy prices, the composite PMI of the euro zone fell to 47.3, raising fears of a contraction of
activity’, they recall.
‘Six months later, the index had rebounded to 54.1 and real GDP was content to stagnate,’ add the private bank’s economists.
In the absence of Wall Street, good news could help European stocks make up for the underperformance they have suffered compared to American markets since the start of the year, with a discount which has now reached a record level by 35%.
‘The valuation of cyclical companies in Europe today includes a scenario of severe recession’, argue the Oddo BHF teams.
The day will also be marked by the publication of the ‘minutes’ of the last ECB meeting, which ended in a ‘status quo’ last month after ten rate increases in a row.
On the foreign exchange market, the dollar is struggling to begin a lasting rebound (a jump the day before, a relapse of -0.1% this Thursday) after having fallen significantly in recent weeks in reaction to the more cautious approach adopted by the Fed.
The euro nibbles 0.1 against the greenback, to 1.0890 dollars, but is currently showing a decline over the whole week.
On the bond market, the yield on ten-year US Treasury bonds remains at around 4.41% (no quotes today) and the yield on the German Bund of the same maturity, which fell by 21 points over the month elapsed, increased by +2.5 points to 2.569%, our OATs deteriorated by +3.5 points to 3.1540%).
On the oil market, crude prices continue to show heaviness after the announcement of a new increase in American reserves last week, but above all because of the postponement of the OPEC+ meeting, which was scheduled for this weekend in Vienna.
The barrel of Brent fell by 1% to 80.9 dollars, the ounce of gold fell by -0.25% towards $1993.
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