CAC40: markets hanging on Powell’s speech


(CercleFinance.com) – At the end of a turbulent day (opening sharply higher, evaporation of gains, then a boost from Wall Street), the Paris stock market ended close to equilibrium, with an anecdotal drop in 0.08%, to 6381 points.

In Europe, the E-Stoxx50 gained 0.2%, with +0.4% in Frankfurt and +0.1% in London.

The Parisian index, which was draped in red at the start of the afternoon, mainly benefited from the upward momentum across the Atlantic, with a Nasdaq at +0.7% and an S&P500 at +0.5%. .

Wall Street shows a little unexpected confidence this Thursday, 24 hours from Jerome Powell’s speech, will be particularly scrutinized.
The chairman of the US Federal Reserve should probably acknowledge that the central bank has no plans to deviate from its strong action in order to calm inflationary pressures.

‘Tensions encountered in bond yields showed no sign of easing before his intervention, especially as the energy situation continues to deteriorate in Europe’, analysts at Deutsche Bank are concerned this morning.

On the interest rate market, the yield on US Treasury bonds rose by +1pt above the 3.112% mark and returned to levels that had not been tested since July 10.

The European bond compartment also had a worrying day yesterday, with a sudden surge in German Bunds and French OATs: a slight easing took place with -1.5 Pts on our OATs at 1.964% (the 2.01% had been tested the day before).

This tension in terms of rates will not fail to be linked to the spectacular surge in the MWh, which passed the 650 euro mark yesterday on the Epex, the electricity futures market reserved for industrialists.

‘This reinforces fears that ‘peak inflation’ has yet to materialize in some countries, meaning central banks are going to have to make tough choices as they grapple with the worst stagflation for decades,” adds the German bank.

The figures of the day are rather reassuring: the real GDP of the United States fell by 0.6% at an annualized rate in the second quarter, according to a second estimate from the Commerce Department which turns out to be more optimistic than the first since a contraction of -0.9% had been published initially (the volumes of US exports would have been underestimated).

Elsewhere, the PCE price index was confirmed up 7.1%, as in the previous quarter. Excluding food and energy prices, the index rose 4.4%, compared to a 5.2% rise in the first quarter.

Weekly jobless claims fell slightly the week of August 15 in the United States, settling at 243,000, against 245,000 (revised figure) the previous week, according to figures from the Department of Labor.

On the other hand, the four-week moving average – which can be considered a better indicator of the underlying trend in the labor market – rose slightly, to 247,000, against 245,500 (revised figure) a week earlier.
Note this evening the slight strengthening of the Euro, which is back at parity with the Dollar.

This morning, investors took notice this morning of various economic statistics.

Thus, announced as stagnant at the end of July, Germany’s GDP finally increased by 0.1% in the second quarter of 2022 compared to the first, according to detailed data (adjusted for price, seasonal and calendar variations) from Destatis.

‘Despite difficult global conditions, the German economy held firm in the first two quarters of 2022’, comments Georg Thiel, president of the Federal Statistical Office, recalling that GDP had increased by 0 .8% in the first quarter.

In France, the business climate index in France was stable in August, according to the synthetic indicator, calculated by INSEE from the responses of business leaders, an index which remains at 103 and therefore remains above its long-term average (100).

In Germany, the business climate deteriorated less than expected in August, but the mood remains clearly pessimistic, according to the monthly Ifo survey published on Thursday. The Institute for Economic Studies indicates that its index fell to 88.5 points this month, after 88.7 points in July, while economists and analysts predicted a more marked drop to 86.8.

In corporate news, ST-Micro takes the lead in the CAC with +1.7%.

Unibail-Rodamco-Westfield (URW) gains +3.9% and announces that it has completed the sale of Westfield Santa Anita in Arcadia, California, to a commercial real estate investor, for a selling price of 537.5 million dollars ( 100%, including 49% for URW’s share).

AB Science announces that it has filed a conditional marketing authorization application with the European Medicines Agency (EMA) for Alsitek (masitinib) for the treatment of amyotrophic lateral sclerosis (ALS).

The British competition authority announced Thursday that it has asked Veolia to sell three activities following the conclusion of its in-depth investigation into the proposed merger with Suez.

Finally, Deezer indicates that its revenues totaled 219 million euros over the first six months of the year, an increase of 12% over one year in published data, including +10% at constant exchange rates. The company mentions a “very good performance” in France, where its turnover increased by 11%, driven by a similar increase in its base of individual subscribers (‘B2C’).

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