(CercleFinance.com) – The Paris Stock Exchange (+0.2%) ended the month of January in style, with a CAC40 which set a new record, testing the symbolic bar of 7,700 (+2.2% annual)… before settling down a bit around 7,690.
The Euro-Stoxx50 is at a standstill (+0.1% at 4,665) after gaining 0.3% this morning, and establishing a new absolute record of 4,674.7 points.
The end of the calendar month has given rise, since last October, to bullish rallies which increasingly resemble those of the ‘3 witches’ (when the underlying trend was positive) and the Dow Jones (+0.2% at 38,550Pts) seems well on its way to setting a 6th consecutive record (and that makes 8 since January 1st, with today’s record at 35,588).
The Nasdaq, on the other hand, drops -1% from the outset, in the wake of AMD (-3.1%) and Alphabet (-6.5%), the S&P500 will also pass its turn for records since it drops -0.7%.
The time remains for optimism on the interest rate markets which are clearly easing (see details below) while the Fed will present this evening, after the Paris market closes, the conclusions of its strategic meeting.
Jerome Powell, the president of the institution, will also give a press conference in the evening, a meeting traditionally closely followed by the markets, and all the more so in this period of uncertainty regarding the evolution of monetary policies. central banks…
While there is little doubt about the prospect of a ‘status quo’, stakeholders will try to read between the lines and detect possible clues as to the pace and timing of rate cuts.
‘The Federal Reserve will undoubtedly clearly put an end to hopes of a rapid rate cut soon (March)’, anticipates Emmanuel Auboyneau, associate manager of Amplegest.
According to him, ‘Jerome Powell will try to calm things down while keeping the door open for the next meetings, depending on economic data’.
In the meantime, investors have taken note of the ‘ADP’ barometer of employment in the private sector of the United States: +107,000 new hires in January, which is clearly below the expectations of economists (of the order of 150,000 expected according to Jefferies), but also down sharply compared to the 158,000 of the previous month (revised from 164,000 in initial estimate).
There were also ‘figures’ this morning in Europe: a further drop (-1.8%) in French industrial production prices (PPI) in December year-on-year, after -0.5% in November.
INSEE specifies that PPIs are almost stable (+0.1% after +0.2% in November) excluding energy.
Still according to INSEE (provisional estimate), consumer prices in France would increase by 3.1% over one year in January 2024, a rate down significantly after that of 3.7% observed in December 2023.
Finally, the German economy contracted significantly in the fourth quarter, according to a new estimate published by the Federal Statistical Office with GDP down 0.3% over the last three months of the year compared to the previous quarter in seasonally adjusted data, in accordance with a first estimate made public on January 15.
There were also ‘stats’ in China this morning and the economy remains in contraction territory with manufacturing activity contracting for the 4th consecutive month in January: the manufacturing PMI index stood at 49, 2 in January compared to 49.0 in December.
The Chinese indices continued their correction, with -1.4% to -1.5% in Shanghai and Hong Kong, -5.7% in Shenzhen… which has now lost -16% since January 1st.
On the bond front, the OATs and the Bunds are once again turning their backs and for the 3rd consecutive session shift by 5Pts in the opposite direction from the day before: our OATs therefore relax towards 2.673%, the Bunds by -6Pts towards 2.178% and Across the Atlantic, T-Bonds are euphoric with -9.5 points at 3.9600% a few hours before the FED press release.
The Dollar is affected and corrects by -0.3%, with the Euro rising towards $1.0880.
In the news of French companies, Vivendi has returned to its split project and is considering a division into four entities, namely Canal+, Havas, a company bringing together assets in publishing and distribution (stakes in Lagardère and Prisma Media) and an investment company (financial interests in culture, media and entertainment).
Nexans informed the markets that the Competition Authority (AC) carried out searches on three of its sites in France on Tuesday, without specifying which ones. According to the group, these operations are part of an investigation targeting the energy cable distribution sector in the French Overseas Territories.
Finally, yesterday evening, Groupe Seb indicated that it had achieved sales of €8,006 million in 2023, organic growth of 5.3%. This performance is in line with the objective that the group had set for organic growth of around 5% in sales in 2023.
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