(CercleFinance.com) – The Paris Stock Exchange lost almost 0.3%, around 7,185 points, particularly penalized by luxury with -1.7% for Kering and -1.6% for LVMH.
After ten sessions of increases out of 13 thanks to renewed optimism about inflation and the American economic situation – investors seem to want to take some profits. Note that since November 27, the CAC has regained more than 6% in a straight line to consecutively re-cross the thresholds of 6800, 6900, 7000, 7100 and 7200 points.
After such a journey, it is perfectly normal to see the market take a little break to digest this particularly powerful movement, which allowed it to reactivate its short-term upward trend.
‘Such a technical rebound was possible after three consecutive months of decline in global equities which had resulted in extreme configurations on a number of indicators (oversold markets, investor positioning)’, we recall at Bnp Paribas Asset Management.
Market enthusiasm can be explained by the recent readjustment of the outlook for rate hikes in the United States, with the probability of tightening now assessed at 0% following the next Fed meeting.
If investors anticipate the end of the cycle of monetary tightening by the major central banks, the persistence of high inflation could call into question market optimism, note the BFT Investment Managers teams.
‘The main risk scrutinized by the markets remains that of high inflation which would push central banks to remain restrictive,’ estimates the portfolio management company.
‘If they cannot ease financial conditions to adjust to the slowdown that is coming due to high inflation, the slowdown will only be more severe,’ adds BFT.
‘In this case, no more ‘soft landing’, even less ‘no landing’, and risky assets will have to adjust downwards’, concludes the Amundi subsidiary.
In the bond compartment, the yield on ten-year American Treasuries stabilizes at around 4.53%, while the decline in inflation becomes more and more visible due to the fall in energy prices.
On the energy side, oil prices continue to decline after yesterday’s announcement of a weekly increase in crude oil stocks. In London, Brent fell 0.3% to 80.8 dollars while the American WTI lost 0.5% to 76.3 dollars.
Investors will be aware today of a new series of indicators in the United States, namely import prices, unemployment benefit registrations, the Philadelphia Fed index and industrial production.
In French company news, ADP announced last night that passenger traffic at its two Paris airports increased by 8.3% in October compared to the same month last year, to reach 8.9 million people transported.
On the occasion of its quarterly publication, Vallourec indicates that it now expects an RBE (gross operating profit) between 1075 and 1175 million euros for 2023 (compared to an RBE previously expected between 950 million and 1.1 billion).
Finally, TotalEnergies EP Gabon, owned 58.28% by TotalEnergies and 25% by the Gabonese State, publishes a net result of 18 million dollars for the third quarter of 2023, a slight improvement of 6% compared to at the second.
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