(CercleFinance.com) – The Paris Stock Exchange ends this first day of the week with a gain of 0.33%, at 7,551 points, driven by Publicis (+2.6%), Sanofi (+1.9%) or again Worldline (+1.5%).
Investors are showing optimism in the perspective of the ‘end of year rally’ despite the dose of uncertainty surrounding the next meetings of the American Federal Reserve (13/12) and the European Central Bank (14 /12).
Remember that the major central banks recently ended their cycle of rate increases but their more accommodating approach does not seem sufficient in the eyes of the markets, which are now anticipating rapid rate cuts, convinced that Jerome Powell or Christine Lagarde are the unwavering allies of the holders of ‘risky’ assets.
The publication last Friday of better than expected employment figures for the month of November nevertheless confirmed the scenario of a ‘soft landing’ for the American economy, which makes monetary easing less urgent.
In Europe, an imminent rate cut is hoped for as the economy flirts with recession.
In this context, ‘the markets consider that the first rate cuts could take place as early as March and that the ECB could make nearly six rate cuts of 0.25% in 2024’, notes Alexandre Baradez, head of the market analysis at IG France.
For the strategist, these expectations are probably too aggressive knowing that underlying inflation in the euro zone is currently hovering around 3.6%, still far from the 2% target established by the central bank.
Beyond central bank announcements, the fall ‘rally’ will be tested by leading economic indicators, including the latest figures for inflation and retail sales in the United States.
In Europe, the preliminary PMI indices for the month of December – expected on Friday – will allow us to assess the seriousness of the recessionary threat on the Old Continent.
In the meantime, dead calm on the bond market with Bunds and OATs frozen at their Friday levels (2.268% and 2.82%), T-Bonds showing +2.3Pt at 4.270%.
Brent fell by 0.3%, to around $75.4 per barrel. For its part, the euro lost 0.1% against the greenback, at $1.074/euro. Finally, note a 1% decline in gold, to $1,982 per ounce.
In company news, Alstom announced this weekend the inauguration of the Citadis Dualis tram-trains on line T12 of the Île-de-France Mobilités network which since yesterday has linked two major hubs in Essonne, Évry-Courcouronnes and Massy-Palaiseau.
Arkema announces that it has signed a 20-year contract with EDF Renewables for the supply of 20 GWh/year of electricity from solar energy, a partnership which will begin in 2026 and will cover 70% of the electricity consumption of the eight Bostik sites in France.
Saint-Gobain announces that it has signed an available credit line of four billion euros maturing in December 2028, including two extension options of one year each, which replaces two available lines of 2.5 and 1.5 billion maturing December 2024.
Finally, Diagnos, a specialist in retinal analysis, announced Monday that it had entered into an exclusive distribution agreement with EssilorLuxottica in Canada. The two groups plan to collaborate by offering optometrists solutions for early detection of eye problems using AI developed by Diagnos.
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