(CercleFinance.com) – The Paris Bourse is playing a roller coaster: it sank this morning to around 6.1504 points (an important level of technical support for many chartists) then recovered above 6.200 towards 3:45 p.m. … before falling again by -1.37% to 6,125 Pts.
The balance sheet for August is very negative (-4.7%) after the CAC lost 7% on its recent peaks (6,600pts).
On Wall Street, the slight rebound in the US indices (the Dow Jones posting +0.5%, the S&P500 +0.7%) did not hold and red dominates -slightly- over the ‘Dow’ and the ‘S&P ‘.
This last session of the month is also punctuated by numerous publications of macroeconomic indicators, including the first estimate of inflation in the euro zone in August.
The euro zone’s annual inflation rate is estimated at 9.1%, slightly accelerating from 8.9% in July, according to a rapid estimate published by Eurostat, the statistical office of the European Union.
As in Germany yesterday, these figures highlight a new acceleration in consumer prices in the region and further fuel the debate on the rise in rates, the dominant factor at the moment.
In France, according to the provisional estimate made by INSEE at the end of the month, consumer prices in France should increase by 5.8% in August 2022, thus marking a slight deceleration after +6.1% the previous month.
In the second quarter of 2022, France’s GDP in volume terms rebounded by 0.5% quarter-on-quarter (after -0.2% in the first quarter of 2022), according to detailed data from INSEE, which therefore confirms its first estimate.
The bond markets are once again moving downwards and yields are symmetrically trending up by +3pts on OATs (towards 2.157%) and Bunds (1.53%). In the United States, the T-Bonds return to equilibrium around 3.105/3.11%.
“Recent speeches do not suggest any imminent break in the tightening cycle”, remind the teams of Oddo BHF in a recent note.
For private banking, the ECB meeting scheduled for next week should end with a 50 basis point hike, even if the assumption of a 75 point hike seems to be holding the rope more and more.
In the United States, the non-agricultural private sector of the United States generated only 132,000 jobs in August according to the ADP firm, a number less than half the consensus of economists, after the 270,000 creations recorded the previous month.
“Our data suggests a recent shift to a more cautious pace of hiring, perhaps as companies try to decipher mixed signals from the economy,” said Nela Richardson, chief economist at ADP.
In the United States, the estimated probability of a rate hike of 75 basis points now stands at 62.5%, according to CME Group’s FedWatch barometer, after the strong Conference Board confidence index released yesterday.
“This positive economic news has boosted investor confidence that the Fed will continue to hike rates in 2023,” Deutsche Bank analysts said.
On the foreign exchange market, the euro is stabilizing a little above parity against the dollar, at 1.001 against the dollar, in view of the normalization of ECB policy.
The only good news from this early morning, the PMI purchasing managers index for the Chinese manufacturing sector stood at 49.4 in August, against 49 in July, according to data from the State Bureau of Statistics.
‘Despite the impacts of Covid-19 and the heat waves, the Chinese economy has maintained its recovery’, welcomes the BES.
The TotalEnergies group (-3.3%) announces the start, on September 1, of its massive program to reduce fuel prices in France, a program which concerns nearly 3,500 service stations. Thus, it will lower the price of petroleum fuels sold in stations by 20 euro cents per liter from September 1 to October 31, then by 10 cents from November 1 to December 31 compared to prices formed on international market quotations.
Airbus announces that Dominik Asam, its chief financial officer (CFO), has decided to leave the company at the beginning of March 2023 after almost four years in office, to seize a new opportunity as chief financial officer of the company software company. SAP.
bioMérieux indicates that it is slightly raising its sales growth targets, to between -6% to -3% organically, and contributive current operating income, to between 580 and 625 million euros. In the first half of 2022, the French specialist in in vitro diagnostics saw its net income, group share fall by 18% to 228 million euros, and its contributing ROC to settle by 15% to 322 million, i.e. a margin of 19, 4%.
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