Dn the context of the uncertainties engendered by the war in Ukraine, China has proven to be one of Russia’s staunchest partners. Chinese imports from Russia – largely made up of raw materials – have surged. First in value, driven by soaring commodity prices: then in volumes, before a slight drop due to the slowdown in Chinese growth from June 2022.
This upward trend goes against the steady decline in Russian export volumes to G7 countries. However, it remains more moderate than the leap in flows of Russian products to the other major emerging countries, but this increase is observed from more modest levels at the start.
Similar trends are found for Chinese exports to Russia. A rebound followed a sharp fall during the first months of the war, although current exports are still weaker than last year, due to the collapse of Russian consumption.
Here too, the contrast with the G7 countries, whose export flows to Russia have virtually disappeared, is flagrant. Among the major emerging countries, less affected than the advanced economies, only Turkish exports were more dynamic than Chinese.
Chinese suppliers in a quasi-monopoly
The semiconductor sector, vital to any modern economy, is a particular illustration of China’s lack of restraint. A brief decline gave way to an almost 300% growth in Chinese semiconductor exports to its “strategic partner”. The rise in the unit prices of these goods, specific to Russia, reflects both a move upmarket to replace imports from advanced economies, and the opportunism of Chinese suppliers, who find themselves in a quasi-monopoly.
Indeed, at the same time, Russian imports from other major producers, in solidarity with the G7 sanctions, have collapsed. If the major Chinese producers of semiconductors directly dependent on American or European inputs, and therefore exposed to sanctions, seem reluctant to trade with Russia, the companies reprocessing these products seem less embarrassed.
Their websites bear witness to their recent commercial efforts towards the Russian market. Several Russian companies have also communicated on their way of accommodating Chinese products, which are certainly less efficient. International sanctions and uncertainties surrounding the Russian economy have, however, weighed on certain aspects of bilateral trade.
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