The purchasing managers’ index, the PMI, a reflection of the health of the Chinese industrial world, stood at 52.6 points in January against 50.1 a month earlier. THOMAS PETER / REUTERS
After the lifting of anti-Covid restrictions, the Chinese recovery exceeds the expectations of financial analysts.
Manufacturing activity in China experienced its best monthly upturn in a decade in February, with factories gradually resuming their usual pace with the end of anti-Covid restrictions, according to official figures released on Wednesday. The purchasing managers’ index, the PMI, a reflection of the health of the industrial world, stood at 52.6 points in January against 50.1 a month earlier, announced the National Bureau of Statistics (BNS). .
A figure above 50 indicates an expansion in activity, and below that indicates a contraction. It had not been so high since 2012. Analysts polled by the economic information agency Bloomberg also expected an increase, but much less marked (50.6).
Increase in demand
China was hit in December-January by a strong wave of Covid-19 after the sudden cessation of once quasi-mandatory PCR tests and travel restrictions. But the fall in the number of sick people, coupled with the return of the Chinese to work after the traditional period of economic slowdown at the end of the Lunar New Year holidays, stimulated activity in February. “With the easing of the effect of the holidays (…) and the repercussions of the epidemic, the recovery of production of manufacturing companies accelerated and demand continued to climb“, welcomed Zhao Qinghe, statistician of the BNS.
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A trend confirmed by the independent PMI index published on Wednesday by the IHS Markit firm for the Caixin media group. It stood at 51.6 points in February, compared to 49.2 points the previous month. According to the study, employment has increased, the pressure on supply chains has eased and delivery times have improved as they have not for eight years. “The return to a more normal situation for businesses and the expected increase in customer demand pushes business confidence for the year ahead to its highest level in 23 months“, she underlines.
The Caixin-Markit survey, which polls mainly SMEs, is said to paint a more accurate picture of the general economy, while the official BNS figure focuses on large public companies. Other more global clues about China’s economic health are expected to be revealed on Sunday at the opening in Beijing of the annual session of the National People’s Congress (NPC), China’s parliament. Prime Minister Li Keqiang will present in a speech the last government report of his mandate and will detail the main economic objectives for the year.
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