New warning less than two weeks from COP27: the commitments of the signatory countries of the Paris agreement are still “very far” from what it would take to hope to meet the objectives of the fight against global warming. Far from limiting the rise in temperatures to 1.5°C or 2°C, the two key figures of the treaty, the greenhouse gas emission reduction plans of the 193 signatory parties “could put the world on the path to ‘a warming of 2.5°C by the end of the century’, warns the UN climate agency in its latest summary of the commitments received.
“We are very far from the level”
At the last world climate conference, COP26 held a year ago in Glasgow, countries had nevertheless pledged to increase their “Nationally Determined Contributions” (NDCs) each year, instead of every five years. years as provided for in the agreement signed in 2015. But as of September 23, the deadline for them to be taken into account before the new conference to be held from November 6 to 18 in the Egyptian city of Sharm el-Sheikh, only 24 countries had submitted a new or strengthened NDC. A “disappointing” figure recognized the head of the UN Climate, Simon Stiell.
“We are very far from the level and the speed of emission reductions necessary to put us on the path to a world with 1.5°C” of maximum temperature increase, he underlined in a commentary. wrote about this synthesis. “To keep this goal (of 1.5°C) alive, governments must strengthen their plans now and implement them in the next eight years,” insists the UN official. Because according to UN experts, global emissions must fall by 45% by 2030, compared to 2010 levels, to meet this objective, set in relation to the average temperatures of the pre-industrial era, when the umanity has begun to use fossil fuels on a massive scale, producing greenhouse gases that cause global warming.
But the new NDC synthesis calculates that the current commitments would instead lead to a 10.6% increase in emissions over the same period.
“Restart the fight”
A few days before COP27 in Sharm el-Sheikh, which will see tens of thousands of delegates and “more than 90” leaders from around the world, according to Egypt, consider the climate future of the planet, this publication sounds as a new warning as the effects of climate change are felt like never before in 2022, with many countries hit by droughts, mega-fires, heat waves, floods, or other disasters. “COP27 is an opportunity for world leaders to relaunch the fight against climate change”, insisted Mr. Stiell, calling to “move from negotiations to implementation and to move towards the profound transformations that must occur. in all sectors in the face of the climate emergency”.
The latest report from UN climate experts (IPCC), published in 2021/22, warned of the short time left to ensure a “liveable future” for humanity. But insisting on the need not to give up, the scientists stress that every fraction of a degree of warming avoided counts, and call on governments to commit more strongly to reducing emissions. “The report (on the NDCs) and that of the IPCC are useful reminders,” said Egyptian Foreign Minister Sameh Choukri, who will chair COP27, on Wednesday. “It is essential to raise ambitions and urgently implement them (…) to protect us from severe climate impacts and devastating loss and damage,” he said in a statement.