(Boursier.com) — The CAC 40 seems to want to make good resolutions this Monday, climbing +0.4% to 7,450 pts at market close. Last week, more robust than expected economic indicators regarding American employment called into question the markets’ optimistic scenario of a fairly rapid reduction in key rates, with the surge in inflation in Europe also weighing on sentiment. Investors are now awaiting new data, namely the CPI inflation figures in the United States for December, which will be published on Thursday. If investors are counting on a further slowdown in price dynamics, an upward surprise could cause the markets to react.
In Europe, German manufacturing figures for November disappointed. The same goes for this month’s retail sales in the eurozone. Over one year, retail sales in the 20 countries sharing the euro fell by -1.1%, while analysts expected a drop of -1.5%. Sales in November of food, beverages and tobacco products decreased by -0.1% month-on-month, while they increased by +1.4% for fuels. Over the period, sales of non-food products (excluding fuel) fell by -0.4%.
However, investor morale in the euro zone improved in January for the third consecutive month. It reached its highest level since May. The Sentix index for the euro zone fell to -15.8 points in January (-16.8 in December), but remains below expectations. The survey also indicates that Germany represents a pocket of weakness, with a decline in sentiment in the euro zone’s largest economy.
At 6 p.m., Wall Street is moving in disorganized order this Monday. The S&P 500 gained +0.55% to 4,723 pts. The Dow Jones returns -0.19%, returning to 37,395 pts. The Nasdaq is once again very solid, with a jump of +1.17% to 14,694 pts. The index is notably boosted by the rebound of Nvidia (+4.34%). After a delicate first stock market week in 2024, the American stock market remains feverish, with news remaining mixed on the ‘Magnificent Seven’, notably You’re here (+0.22%) and Apple (+1.38%).
Oils and currencies
Oil prices fell sharply this Monday. A barrel of WTI crude fell -4.7% to $70.44. North Sea Brent fell -4% to $75.75. Saudi Arabia lowered the official selling price of its oil for February on Sunday. State producer Saudi Aramco cut the price of its flagship Arab Light product to Asia by a larger-than-expected $2 per barrel due to continued weak demand.
The euro is firm against the greenback. The European currency is trading at $1.0974.
An ounce of gold returns -0.67% to $2,032.15 (1,851.7 euros). Bitcoin appreciates by +2.3% to $44,973.
Rising values
* Lexibook (+16.06% to 2.855 euros). The French leader in the design and marketing of intelligent leisure electronic products jumps with the publication of sharply increased results for the first half of 2023-2024. As of September 30, 2023, the group’s turnover stood at €22.19 million (20.38 million as of September 30, 2022), an increase of 9%. Operating profit increased by +47% and reached €3.54 million. This progression is mainly due to the increase in the volume of activity and the increase in margin, and “testifies to the group’s ability to generate high margins thanks to its niche strategy”. The net result at the end of the half-year stood at 3,095 ME (1,247 ME a year earlier).
* Riber (+5.52% to 1.91 euros). At the end of December, the German company Innolume ordered a new MBE 49 machine intended to strengthen its production capacity for GaAs-based quantum dot lasers and to support the expansion of its markets, in particular that of cloud networking. Riber says Innolume is one of the few companies producing high-performance quantum dot lasers offering high reliability, low sensitivity to optical feedback and high-temperature operation “unmatched in the market.” This acquisition is also accompanied by a major order for services and accessories intended to modernize an existing machine in order to increase its productivity.
* bioMérieux (+3.12% to 101 euros). The Lyon group acquired Lumed, a software company which created a clinical decision support system intended to support hospitals in optimizing antibiotic prescriptions and monitoring healthcare-associated infections. bioMérieux until now held 16% of the Canadian firm with which the French laboratory has worked closely since 2017. This acquisition of 84% of the capital represents an investment of nearly 9 ME.
* TF1 (+2.53% to 7.5 euros). The media group has signed a new agreement with Free which takes effect in January for subscribers benefiting from Freebox Pop. The deployment will be gradual in the coming weeks for other Freebox subscribers. This agreement allows subscribers of the group Iliad to benefit from the new free TF1+ service. In addition, Free subscribers will still be able to access all of the TF1 group’s TNT channels -TF1, TMC, LCI, TFX, TF1 Séries Films- and its replay programs (MYTF1) in the OQEE by Free application in mobility and on connected TV.
* Airbus (+2.51% to 143.2 euros). The aeronautics group finished at the top of the CAC40, taking advantage of the latest incident involving Boeing’s 737 Max. In addition to this new blow affecting the image of the American group’s best-seller, the entire range is now grounded in the United States and in other countries such as Turkey.
* Pernod Ricard (+1.53% to 149.25 euros). The title remains solid despite an analysis by Morgan Stanley which cuts its target on the spirits group from 178 to 155 euros, with an opinion of ‘online weighting’. It is true that with Rémy Cointreau (+2.17%), the file took a beating on Friday (-3.57%) after the announcement by the Chinese Ministry of Commerce of the launch of an anti-competitive investigation into wine spirits, like cognac, imported from the European Union. The investigation by Chinese authorities follows a complaint from the China Alcoholic Beverage Association on behalf of the local wine spirits industry. Oddo BHF considers that the market reaction was excessive given the persistent uncertainties surrounding the nature of these restrictions which, at this stage, remains unknown.
* Capgemini (+1.22% to 186.75 euros). Jefferies is ‘buying’ the stock, and is raising its target on the file from 210 to 250 euros.
Falling values
* Enertime (-11.3% to 0.58 euros). The company communicates on cash flow tensions at the end of 2023, due to a delay between the late entry into force of the financing necessary for the project Verallia (-0.36%) and the effective start of work on the project. As of January 5, 2024, the group’s consolidated cash flow had significantly improved to reach €2.7 million, including €500 thousand pledged to obtain bank guarantees on contracts. Enertime recorded €10 million in orders in 2023 and expects a sharp increase in turnover and operating income for 2023 compared to 2022.
* Casino (-4.28% to 0.581 euros). The distribution group stalls again… However, the European Commission has given the green light to the takeover of the Casino group by a consortium led by businessman Daniel Kretinsky. The European Commission delivered its opinion on January 5. This decision authorizes the takeover of the Distribution Group as part of a financial restructuring by the consortium composed of EP Equity Investment III sàrl, Fimalac and Attestor. It is specified that the consortium’s acquisition vehicle will be controlled by EP Equity Investment III sàrl, a company controlled by Daniel Kretinsky.
* Eramet (-3.54% to 66.7 euros). Oddo BHF takes stock of the situation as headwinds (nickel and lithium falling, euro rising) accumulate. The broker explains that the CMD of November 13 contributed to improving investor perception and positioning Eramet as a growth stock thanks to lithium projects and significant expansion in manganese in Gabon and nickel in Indonesia. After the incidents in the first half, the last few months have seen an improvement in execution with sustained production and controlled costs in Q3.
Oddo BHF returned to ‘outperform’ on October 30 when the share price was near its lowest levels. Since then, the stock has recovered +12%, helped in particular by the CMD. The reduction in the analyst’s estimates leads him to adjust his price target (based on a sum of the parts) downward from 89 to 85 euros. The risks of a decline in consensus are, however, real, since the broker is now 30% below on average over 2024-2025.
* Gecina (-2.11% to 106.6 euros). The real estate company suffers from a recommendation adjustment from Morgan Stanley, which went to ‘underweight’ on the file, now targeting 90 euros. The bank believes that the market underestimates the risk of a probable further correction in the value of capital.
* Poujoulat (-1.25% to 15.8 euros). Euro Energies, the wood energy division of the Poujoulat Group, acquired, on December 22, 100% of the capital of the company Breizh Bois, located in Morbihan. The objective of the operation is “to continue the consolidation of the wood energy activity and its Woodstock and Crépito brands in the Greater West”. The historic shareholders of Breizh Bois, Mr. and Mrs. Annic, and representatives of the subsidiary of the Poujoulat Group, signed the sale protocol on December 22, 2023. Breizh Bois, located in Pluvigner since 1997, specializes in the manufacturing and the distribution of high-performance logs and pellets, intended for individuals. The company has more than 4,000 historical customers in the surroundings of Vannes, Auray and Lorient. The acquisition is part of the external growth approach of the Euro Energies subsidiary and the development of its Woodstock and Crépito brands. The assignees and the current Breizh Bois team will support Euro Energies in the development of the growth project requiring an investment of 3 ME over 18 months. The site now has 2,600 m2 of buildings on 2 ha of land.