Complicated survey results
How realistic is the big election bang in Saxony?
December 8th, 2023, 5:00 a.m
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Survey results in Saxony see several established parties dangerously close to the five percent hurdle – including the SPD. If they actually fail in the state elections, in extreme cases only the AfD and CDU could be left – and perhaps a Wagenknecht party.
Almost nine months before the state elections in Saxony, the SPD’s failure to meet the five percent threshold is considered possible. The SPD, like the Greens and the Left, is currently at 7 percent in Saxony, as a survey by the Civey Institute for the “Sächsische Zeitung” showed this week. “If the SPD, the Left and the Greens in Saxony are now at 7 percent each, they must all expect to possibly fail at the five percent hurdle in 2024,” said party researcher Hendrikträger from the University of Leipzig to the “Tagesspiegel”. “The path from 7 to 4.9 percent is short; the statistical margin of error in surveys alone speaks for this.”
In view of the current surveys, it could happen in the Saxony election on September 1, 2024 that only “CDU, AfD and possibly the Wagenknecht party will sit in the state parliament,” saidträger. This will “make it significantly more difficult to form a government.” The ex-left-wing politician had already offered the CDU cooperation at the state level. In Brandenburg and Thuringia, state leaders were open to it, but the CDU federal leadership was horrified.
If there is no Wagenknecht party on the ballot in Saxony, in an extreme case only the CDU and AfD could sit in the state parliament – and the election winner could govern alone. If there is no tie in seats between the two parties, the winner of the election will definitely have an absolute majority. In the most recent Civey survey, the CDU and AfD were on par with 33 percent. The results of the other parties: The Free Voters came in at 3 percent, the FDP at 2 percent. Other parties achieved a total of 8 percent.
Expert sees devastating consequences for SPD
While the Greens have already missed entry into the Saxon state parliament several times, “the SPD could lose its parliamentary existence for the first time in 2024,” saidträger. The SPD achieved 7.7 percent in the last state election in Saxony in 2019. In nationwide surveys, the Social Democrats are at around 15 percent. In Saxony, the party has always suffered from structural weakness. What makes things more difficult for the SPD and the Greens, and even more so for the FDP, is that they form the federal government and it is very unpopular, saidträger. “This usually has an impact on state elections.”
“For the SPD and the Greens, it is about nothing less than political survival in the Free State of Saxony. If they were to leave the state parliament in 2024 and then not be a member of it for five years, that would be politically and organizationally devastating for the parties, especially the SPD .”
Political scientist Frank Decker from the University of Bonn sees the situation somewhat differently. “I don’t see the risk of failure at the five percent hurdle for the SPD and the Left, but I see a risk for the FDP and the Greens,” Decker told the “Tagesspiegel”. This applies to Saxony as well as to Thuringia, where the state parliament is also due to be elected in September. A Wagenknecht party, if it runs in both federal states, has a chance of overcoming the hurdle, said Decker, who is a member of the SPD Basic Values Commission.