It is a decision that risks setting fire to the powder. Vladimir Putin has recognized the independence of the pro-Russian separatist regions of Donetsk and Lugansk, in eastern Ukraine. “A decree to this effect will be signed shortly,” the Kremlin said, adding that the Russian president had informed French President Emmanuel Macron and German Chancellor Olaf Scholz, mediators in the conflict, of his decision.
The Russian leader formally announced his decision during a televised address on Monday evening.
What does this decision imply?
The recognition concerns the independence of two pro-Russian territories of the Ukrainian Donbass, a mining and industrial basin bordering Russia: the self-proclaimed “republics” of Donetsk and Lugansk, whose “leaders” had called on Vladimir Putin on Monday to recognize their sovereignty.
This measure marks the end of a moribund peace process under Franco-German mediation which provided for a return of these territories to the control of Kiev in exchange for broad autonomy. Above all, it opens the door to a Russian military deployment in these regions, at the request of the local authorities who would therefore be recognized as legitimate by Moscow, and in the name of the “protection” of the Russian citizens living there.
This announcement comes against a backdrop of increasing signs of a war in Ukraine, on the borders of which more than 150,000 Russian soldiers, according to Washington, have been waiting in arms for several weeks.
Sanctions announced by the EU, Macron convenes a Defense Council
Westerners have tried, in vain, to dissuade Vladimir Putin from making this decision. Recognizing the independence of the separatist regions would be “a unilateral rupture” of the 2015 Minsk agreements intended to resolve the situation there, warned Olaf Scholz, after an interview with the Russian president.
The European Union, which has threatened several times to impose heavy economic sanctions against Moscow in the event of military aggression, said it was “ready to react” if the master of the Kremlin followed the path of recognition. And the Organization for Security and Cooperation in Europe (OSCE) for its part held an extraordinary meeting to try to find a way out of the crisis around Ukraine, its secretary general calling for “dialogue”.
Emmanuel Macron, who has taken the lead in European efforts to try to defuse the Ukraine crisis, also convened a defense council on Monday evening to examine the new situation.
A crazy day
The announcement of the future recognition of the separatists comes at the end of a crazy day which saw Moscow multiply the accusations against Ukraine: destruction of a border post, infiltration of a team of “saboteurs” therefore five members were reportedly killed by Russian forces. Kiev has denied these claims outright, which Westerners say are part of Russian efforts to create a pretext for military intervention.
Faced with the threat of an invasion, Ukraine called for an “immediate” meeting of the UN Security Council. Tensions, which have been growing steadily in recent months, have been worsening for three days with the resurgence of clashes in eastern Ukraine, where Kiev and separatist forces have been clashing since 2014.
However, Paris announced on Sunday evening that it had snatched the promise of a summit bringing together Vladimir Putin and American President Joe Biden. But the Kremlin showered these hopes, calling such a meeting “premature”.