In a plebiscite, the Kazakhs approved constitutional changes initiated by President Tokayev. They mark a break with the era of his predecessor, Nazarbayev, but also raise high expectations.
Kazakh President Kasym-Jomart Tokayev on Sunday after casting his vote at a polling station in the capital Nursultan.
The love of the people cannot simply be bought. In Kazakhstan, at any rate, the times are over when the hopes of stability and prosperity alone gave the rulers a free hand. With a good 77 percent, the Kazakhs approved the constitutional amendments presented to them in a plebiscite by President Kazym-Jomart Tokayev on Sunday. This is a long way from the jubilant majorities of over 90 percent in previous years, especially when 68 percent of those entitled to vote took part. In the economic metropolis of Almaty, this was even 33 percent.
At least the results suggest they’re reasonably honest. For Tokayev, the question is whether this is enough to rally the population behind the promise of a “new Kazakhstan” and secure power in the presidential election in two years. And for the Central Asian country, it remains to be seen whether the constitutional changes will actually enable the propagated goals – more say for the people, more accountability for the powerful, less nepotism.
escalation in January
At the beginning of January, world attention was focused on Kazakhstan. Unexpectedly for the government and many observers, a regional protest over higher fuel prices swept the country and temporarily brought it to the brink of anarchy. This not only revealed socio-economic failings such as the unequal distribution of wealth and the way to achieve it.
The protest quickly turned political and was directed against the clan of former President Nursultan Nazarbayev, who, even after retiring from the leadership of the state in 2019, still held the most important reins in his hands. The displeasure projected itself particularly onto his family, which was closely linked to the state and business. According to the rumor, they had a hand in the escalation of violence.
Nazarbayev’s successor Tokayev spoke of a “terrorist attack” by “20,000 foreign fighters”, issued an order to shoot at demonstrators and looters and called on the Moscow-led military alliance ODKB for help. When the spook was over after less than a week, not only shops were looted and administration buildings burned. The trust in the President and the state, which had already been shattered, was now really shaken.
So far, the background of the sudden escalation has remained in the dark. Among those arrested were close confidants and relatives of Nazarbayev, such as the head of the intelligence service and former Prime Minister Karim Masimov. But where the “terrorists” came from is unclear. Also the course of the bloody crackdown on the peaceful protests of ordinary citizens in Almaty, who had nothing in common with marauders, is not processed. On the contrary, some of them are now being tried for taking part in mass riots. Social and political peace is fragile.
Nazarbayev loses his privileges
Tokayev took the “January events” as an opportunity to distance himself from Nazarbayev and to proclaim a “new Kazakhstan”. This “second republic” should let the people participate more in politics and in prosperity, reduce the omnipotence of the president – and the “Elbasy”, the “leader of the nation”, who remained with Nazarbayev beyond his presidency, the influence and the take privileges. He seems to agree with that.
In addition, the constitutional amendment should serve to ensure Tokayev’s re-election in 2024. He came into office in 2019 without his own powers; According to the Kazakh political scientist Dosym Satpayev, he still lacks this today. Satpayev sees a value in itself for Tokayev in the shortly scheduled vote on the constitution, as he explained to the exiled Russian portal Medusa: It’s about political symbolism, about showing that something is changing.
The fact that the content of the changes was less important was also shown by the lack of a real voting campaign. Little was known about the details. In addition, observers complained that the entire process of changing the constitution was carried out from above. The plebiscite itself was more of a vote on Tokayev – and against the Nazarbayev clan and their preferential treatment. In future, relatives of the President will be prohibited from holding high offices.
Tokayev raises expectations
Kazakh politics remains president-centric. In future, parliament will be elected partly by proportional representation and partly by majority voting, and the regional governors will have to be confirmed by the regional parliaments. Some functions will be shifted within the government and the work of the government will become more transparent. The big question, however, is whether this will really strengthen these institutions. That would be the prerequisite for moving away from the personalized government model.
The population calls for change. Tokayev’s difficulty will be to live up to these expectations and actually break with the old system that founding President Nazarbayev stood for. At the same time, Tokayev is dependent on a power elite that doesn’t want to have everything taken away from them. And finally, with his call for help to the ODKB, he raised the question of how much Kazakhstan wants to become dependent on Moscow. Some fears from January have not been fulfilled so far. But the issue has become even more explosive with the Russian invasion of Ukraine.