The French Building Federation (FFB) fears a fall in the construction of new housing in 2023, in particular in individual houses, its president Olivier Salleron said on Tuesday.
After two good years in 2021 and 2022, marked by a catch-up after the 2020 confinements and a boom in building permits before the entry into force of stricter regulations on new construction (RE2020), the FFB forecasts a break in 2023, said Olivier Salleron, during the quarterly press briefing of the FFB.
Housing starts should fall by 9% and fall to around 360,000 units, their long-term average, the Federation predicts.
The cause: the sharp decline in building permits, -21.3% (expected for 2023, editor’s note), following the collapse of sales in 2022, both among CMIs (builders of individual houses), -30%, and among real estate developers, or the collective, -15%, said Mr. Salleron.
A decline attributed to several causes: the reluctance of mayors to sign building permits, the additional costs of the RE2020, the increase in construction costs and the difficulties of households to borrow.
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0.7% growth in 2023
In total, in 2022, the activity of building professionals should increase by 3.7% compared to 2021, according to estimates by the FFB, and it should grow by 0.7% in 2023.
It would benefit from the good order books, detailed Olivier Salleron. Employment would stagnate, however, with a first half up slightly but a start of inflection in the second if no action is taken, he fears.
Business will also be driven by renovation activities, supported by the public authorities via the MaPrimeRnov’ system and energy savings certificates to limit the energy needs of buildings and their impact on the climate.
Fortunately, the environment is much better oriented towards energy renovation, with this collective awareness (of the fact) that renovating housing means putting out much less CO2, welcomed Mr. Salleron.
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