Three days before the end of COP28, China affirms on Saturday that negotiations on the exit of oil, gas and coal are moving forward, while OPEC tries to slow down the dynamic against fossil fuels. “We have already made progress on this subject, and I think we will have more very soon, in the coming days,” said Chinese climate envoy Xie Zhenhua, a veteran of these negotiations who was at COP21 when the Paris agreement was adopted in 2015. “Because if we do not succeed, if we do not resolve this subject, I see little chance that we will have a successful COP28,” he said. he added during a meeting with journalists.
The great diplomatic puzzle being assembled in Dubai under the presidency of the United Arab Emirates must both send the signal that the beginning of the end of fossil fuels has begun, according to the wishes of a hundred countries including those of the European Union, and that the energy transition must not be synonymous with sacrifice for developing countries. China, attached to the Paris agreement, is seen as a bridge between rich and developing countries, and its emissary is at all the meetings.
On Saturday, Xie Zhenhua took care to recall that China and the United States had signed a joint declaration in November to say that renewable energies (solar, wind, etc.) should gradually replace fossils. Will this be the basis of a compromise at COP28? Sultan Al Jaber, the president of the conference, wants a “deal” by Tuesday, the 8th anniversary of the Paris agreement.
“Angry” with OPEC
The diplomatic game of the next three days will consist of finding the point of balance capable of winning the consensus of 194 countries and the European Union. “The whole challenge is to find formulations which take into account the very great diversity of the starting points of each country and the way in which they imagine moving towards carbon neutrality, while trying to maintain a high level of ambition” , explains the French Minister of Energy Transition, Agnès Pannier-Runacher. “We’re going to have to be a little inventive with the language.”
So close to the goal, the major camps are repeating their positions, and the ire of anti-fossil countries is targeting OPEC, the cartel of oil exporting countries led by Saudi Arabia. The Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries defended its opposition to any specific targeting of fossil fuels in a final agreement on Saturday. “There is no single solution or path to achieving a sustainable energy future,” said a representative of the organization’s secretary general.
The latter, Haitham al-Ghais, wrote this week “urgently” to its 23 member or associated countries to urge them to “proactively reject” any agreement targeting fossil fuels. The intervention sparked a deluge of reactions in Dubai, among NGOs, but also among ministers. The Spanish Minister for Ecological Transition Teresa Ribera, whose country holds the biannual presidency of the European Union, made noise by denouncing a “repugnant” position. Agnès Pannier-Runacher said she was “stunned” and “angry”.
“Nothing endangers the prosperity and future of the Earth’s inhabitants, including the citizens of OPEC countries, more than fossil fuels,” said Tina Stege, climate envoy for the Marshall Islands. of the Pacific threatened by rising waters. But “no country wants to be the country designated as the troublemaker”, adds a member of the COP28 presidency team, who especially sees in the Saudi maneuvers a typical technique for the purposes of negotiation.
“Lead by example”
At the podium, the countries followed one another on Saturday without showing any notable evolution in their public positions. The representative of Qatar even took the opportunity to praise natural gas, of which his country is a major producer. “Qatar supplies global markets with clean energy through the production of natural gas,” assured Qatar’s Minister of the Environment, Faleh Nasser Al-Thani, without batting an eyelid.
Emerging and developing countries are demanding compensation from rich countries to sign the abandonment of fossil fuels. The terms “equity” and “fair” are all the talk. From the podium on Saturday, Indian climate minister Bhupender Yadav called on developed countries to “lead by example”.