Covid-19: are we seeing a “sudden increase in mortality” in highly vaccinated countries?

It was without interruption that he poured out his prime-time anti-vaccine theories. In front of the cameras of TPMP, Fabrice Di Vizio wanted “to sum up” this Wednesday, January 5, the arguments that push him to oppose the vaccination against Covid-19. In the midst of the multitude of justifications heard in the past, Professor Didier Raoult’s lawyer revealed the existence of a “note” allegedly published the same day. According to him, this would show that the countries “ultra-majority” immune noticed “a sudden increase in mortality over a month and a half”. Phenomenon of which we would not know “not the cause” and that the lawyer therefore did not hesitate to link to the vaccination campaign. What is it really?

None of our research has allowed us to get our hands on this “note” mentioned by the lawyer at the Paris bar targeted by a disciplinary investigation. Questioned by us, the person, who is not at his first unfounded rumor, did not respond to our requests.

That said, the same day, some Internet users alerted to this same phenomenon on social networks. Relying on mortality statistics in Europe, they ensure that these data “show a generalized excess of mortality in 2021 since the use of the vaccine “ in the general population. On the graphs that illustrate one of his tweets, we actually see the curve of the “excess mortality in Europe” (in English on the image below) climb in 2021. And just before its explosion, an arrow indicates the “start of vaccination in adults” or at the “young”. So how do you explain it?

The source of this graph is quite robust. It comes from the EuroMomo project for “European Monitoring of excess Mortality for public health action”, ie the network of “European surveillance of excess mortality for public health action”, in French. Set up on a continent-wide scale, its objective is “to homogenize” data on the subject and have comparable results between each country, as Public Health France explained in 2013.

However, the latest EuroMomo bulletin covering the last week of 2021 does indeed underline a “substantial excess mortality” observed through data from the 25 European countries participating in the project. Phenomenon that can be visualized through the various graphics posted on the project site. The excess mortality curve among people aged 15 to 44 seems to exceed that of the year 2020 from the week of April 26. Or, according to the Internet user, at the time of the opening to vaccination for this segment of the population. An inaccurate statement. In France, for example, the extension of vaccination to all people aged 18 to 49 did not take place until May 12, i.e. after the “lift-off” of this curve.

As for children, we see excess mortality exceeding that of the previous year and the general average in week 38, that is to say from last September 20. Once again, this event does not coincide with the opening to vaccination for this age group. It was not until November 25, two months later, that the European health authorities gave the green light to the vaccination of children from 5 to 11 years old.

Beyond these only contradictions around the calendar, how to explain this increase in mortality? And can it be linked to vaccination? No, quite the contrary. Contrary to what the anti-vaccine advocate says, this sad phenomenon is not visible in the countries “mostly vaccinated” … but well in those which did not protect their population!

Thus, neither Portugal nor Malta, champions of vaccination in Europe with respectively 89% and 84% of the population immunized, have experienced a significant increase in mortality since the start of 2021. And in Spain, third on the podium, mortality even decreased in the last months of 2021. Ditto in France, where 74% of the total population received their injections against the Covid-19.

In reality, the excess mortality on the continent is mainly carried by the countries of the East which are not very vaccinated and affected by a wave of particularly fatal contaminations. This is the case, for example, of Hungary which, with only 62% of its population protected, is one of the countries with the highest excess mortality on the continent. Even more striking case, Bulgaria. According to data from EuroMomo, this state which has vaccinated only 28% of its population has recorded 58,440 additional deaths since April 2020. On November 16, the agency Reuters was also looking at the situation in this country, “the least vaccinated in the EU”, where the deaths “are 50% above normal”.

To summarize, and contrary to what Fabrice Di Vizio said, Eastern Europe has now become the epicenter of excess mortality on the continent. This is because of the delay in the deployment of vaccination.

Do you want to ask us questions or provide us with information that you think is unreliable? Do not hesitate to write to us at [email protected]. You can also find us on Twitter: our team is there behind the @ verif_TF1LCI account.