Prime Minister Jean Castex will announce new measures this evening at 6 p.m. following what he described a few days ago as"a form of third wave" facing the deputies. The epidemic situation is being closely monitored by the authorities and will lead to new restrictions in certain regions. It must be said that the disparities are strong in the country. Four regions are of particular concern: Île-de-France, Hauts-de-France, Alpes-Maritimes and Grand Est, with a sharp increase in the number of cases and (too) strong hospital pressure. While some are already confined at weekends (in the Alpes-Maritimes and Pas-de-Calais), Ile-de-France and Hauts-de-France should in turn be affected by total containment or partial. Answer at 6 p.m.
To measure the evolution of the epidemic, the authorities are basing themselves on an indicator that is now essential: the incidence rate. About twenty departments are classified under enhanced surveillance. According to the latest figures published by Santé Publique France, the incidence rate in France is 244/100 000 inhabitants, an increase compared to the previous week. All age groups are affected by this increase, except those aged 75 and over (decreasing thanks to the effects of vaccination).
What is the incidence rate?
The incidence rate corresponds to the number of people tested positive (for the first time in more than 60 days) per 100,000 inhabitants. It is therefore calculated as follows: (100,000 * number of positive cases) / Population.
This indicator is calculated from the results of tests carried out in the country: 2.1 million for example last week in France. All the results of the RT-PCR screening tests for Covid-19 carried out in a laboratory in France have in fact been recorded, since May 2020, in the national SIDEP database. Since November, the antigenic tests (carried out in laboratories, by a pharmacist, a nurse or a doctor) also go up in this base. Thanks to these data, we can follow the evolution of the incidence rate via Public Health France, which details it daily and weekly, at the national level but also at the regional and even departmental level. It can also be viewed by age group. Multiple data collected in the national SIDEP database make it possible to calculate the indicators for monitoring the evolution of the pandemic in France, which are displayed in "Géodes" for those who want to go further.
Regarding the incidence rate, three levels have been set for this indicator (calculated over a rolling week, i.e. 7 days elapsed) to make it possible to draw a "colored" map of the country:
– green: below 10 people tested positive out of 100,000 people tested;
– orange (vigilance threshold): above 10 / 100,000;
– red (alert threshold): above 50 / 100,000.
At the end of February 2021, the incidence rate in France was over 50 in… 99 departments, ie almost the entire country. But beyond this figure, it is its evolution that the health authorities are monitoring to consider new restrictive measures or, on the contrary, relief.
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