In this Covid-19 pandemic, Europe is experiencing a respite comparable to a “ceasefire” which could “bring us lasting peace”, the World Health Organization said on Thursday. A reflux which also concerns France, where the Minister of Health Olivier Véran declared Thursday that “the worst is behind us and we have done the hardest”. The epidemic indeed seems to be slowing down after the months of December and January which saw contamination explode.
Fewer infections
The number of Covid-19 infections peaked on January 24 at more than 566,000 daily cases. Since then, contaminations have been decreasing, as can be seen in the graph below. From 364,000 daily cases per week to January 24, France fell this Thursday below the bar of 300,000 daily cases on average over 7 days. Precisely, “only” 274,000 infections were recorded yesterday in France.
The epidemic peak of this fifth wave therefore seems to have been reached. The health situation has greatly improved in the departments of Grand-Est, Ile-de-France, Auvergne-Rhône-Alpes, Provence-Alpes-Côte d’Azur and Bourgogne-Franche-Comté, where the number of contaminations fell between January 24 and 31. Over this period, the incidence rate thus fell by 43% in the Rhône, by 36% in the two Savoies, by 35% in the Hautes-Alpes, by 23% in the Côte-d’Or, by 20% in Bas-Rhin and up to 64% in Seine-Saint-Denis, as shown in the map below.
The departments in the west of France are seeing slight increases.
Other good news: on February 1, the reproduction rate of the virus fell below 1 and stood at 0.98. Thus, since this date, an infected French person infects less than one person.
Hospitalizations and deaths down slightly
At the national level, the drop in Covid-19 infections is also reflected in a decrease in the number of hospitalizations. Be careful, however, not to declare victory too soon.
The decrease in hospital admissions is indeed very recent, since the peak seems to have been reached on February 2 with 3,230 new hospitalizations according to Public Health France. On Wednesday, “only” 2,784 Covid patients were admitted to hospital.
In addition, the number of deaths in hospitals is also decreasing very slowly, with another 382 dead last Wednesday, against 393 a week earlier. Nothing, therefore, to speak of a significant drop for the moment.
But the number of hospitalizations and deaths never follows that of contamination to the day. The decrease in Covid-19 cases nationwide should therefore only materialize in the hospital in a week or two, if this trend continues.
A rising positivity rate
In addition, the positivity rate – namely the share of people taking a test and testing positive for Covid-19 – has greatly increased in recent weeks. It was 16.1% on January 1, 23.5% on January 15, and 33.7% on January 31. In other words, on this date, more than a third of French people who went to pharmacies or laboratories to carry out screening were declared positive. Thus, although the number of Covid contaminations is decreasing, the current positivity rate indicates that the virus continues to circulate significantly.
However, this indicator should be taken with a grain of salt since for the past few days, it has no longer been possible to carry out “prevention” tests to obtain your health pass. The vaccination pass has indeed entered into force. Thus, people who get tested are more likely to be contact cases or to have symptoms, and therefore Covid-19. Hence the increase in the positivity rate.
Be careful with BA2
Caution is therefore still in order, according to epidemiologists. “At the national level, the peak has passed,” said Geneviève Chêne, director general of Public Health France, Thursday. “Do we have to deduce that the wave is over, that the epidemic is behind us, no”, she however commented.
Especially since the threat of a new variant is not ruled out. “We will have to monitor the BA2 variant of Omicron which is developing in Denmark”, thus indicated Professor Philippe Amouyel, epidemiologist and professor of public health at the Lille University Hospital, in the North. If nothing indicates that it is more dangerous than its big brother, this strain has indeed become dominant among the Danes.
But faced with the brightening brought by the ebb of contamination, the Minister of Health Olivier Véran announced on Wednesday a relaxation of the rules for obtaining the vaccine pass: it can be obtained after two doses and an infection with Covid-19. The government also began on Wednesday to lift restrictions on the French, ending the wearing of masks outside, gauges in places receiving the seated public or compulsory teleworking.