Covid-19: no improvement in the health situation expected before spring, according to the Scientific Council

We will still have to wait … According to an opinion of the Scientific Council given Thursday evening to the government but made public this Saturday, the improvement of the health situation will not take place before spring. If, according to experts, the fifth wave linked to the Delta variant “has probably reached a peak or a plateau of contaminations”, the tension in the hospitals will remain high until the beginning of next year.

“The impact on the healthcare system should be maximum during the holiday season and continue into January 2022. This impact was largely limited by vaccination but will remain at a high level, reaching 3,500 hospitalizations in critical care”, writes the instance.

From January, the Scientific Council expects to “very many” new infections with the Omicron variant. As of December 16, 310 cases of Omicron variants had been detected in France. Corn “the real number is probably much higher”, considers this body responsible for giving recommendations to the executive with regard to knowledge about the epidemic. “If the doubling time were to be that of the United Kingdom (2 to 3 days), Omicron would become the majority, from the end of December 2021 / beginning of January 2022”. Moreover, they warn, there is at the moment “no objective evidence to say to date that the Omicron variant would cause clinical forms less severe than those observed with its predecessors”.

The notice thus indicates that “The impact of the Delta and Omicron waves will be felt on the hospital system throughout the first quarter of 2022, and possibly beyond. After this difficult period, the epidemiological situation should improve thereafter, in particular with the arrival of spring “.

Faced with this threat, the Scientific Council calls on the government to establish “significant restrictions”, especially facing the risk of transmission of the epidemic on the occasion of New Year’s Eve. “In view of the acceleration of the epidemic, and the risks associated with end-of-year festive activities, significant restrictive measures must be able to be taken by the authorities on the occasion of New Year’s Eve (including, where applicable, under the form of limitation of collective activities or curfews), with the possibility of a territorial variation “, he writes.

The body recommends banning major events that could lead to giant clusters. During his speech on Friday, Jean Castex had ordered the prefects to invite the municipalities to give up the organization of rallies on the public highway, “including fireworks or concerts”. This Saturday, the Paris town hall announced to cancel the fireworks display and the December 31 concert.

Experts also recommended “very strongly to make the reminder compulsory for caregivers and staff of health and medico-social establishments”. “The percentage of caregivers having received a 3rd booster dose is currently 57% among private caregivers, 31.6% among salaried caregivers and 28.4% among professionals

working in nursing homes “, they recall, judging these figures “insufficient”. Invited this Saturday morning on France Inter, the Minister of Health Olivier Véran has already announced that the recall would be mandatory from January 30 for caregivers and firefighters.

Since mid-November, virus contaminations have sharply increased in France, to exceed the threshold of 50,000 new cases per day on average.