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The wave of contagion in China is keeping the world busy. However, there are unlikely to be any serious consequences for Switzerland.
The infection rate in China is going through the roof. After the Communist Party around President Xi Jinping abandoned the zero-Covid strategy, what the infectiologist Jan Fehr from the University of Zurich describes as a “humanitarian disaster” happened: A strongly circulating virus meets a population with insufficient vaccination protection.
It is unclear how high the number of cases and deaths in China actually are. The official reports give a distorted picture. The latest report from the Health Commission as of December 24th assumes only 4128 infections. For comparison: The British analysis company Airfinity estimates that in the People’s Republic currently only around 5000 people die of Corona every day. In addition, more than a million people are said to be infected every day – a number that could triple in the next few weeks.
“China no longer conducts mass tests and no longer reports asymptomatic cases,” explains Louise Blaire, an expert in biochemical immunology and chief analyst at Airfinity, explaining the numerical discrepancy. The WHO also takes the same line and criticizes the insufficient data.
Italy switches to defensive mode
So the virus is raging in China. And with every contagion comes the possibility of mutation. This, in turn, fuels fears that a new variant could spread in this country and bypass immunity – similar to what happened with Delta and Omikron.
If you look at the reactions of different countries, this does not appear to be out of thin air. For example, the USA, Japan, India and Taiwan have already imposed entry restrictions. And a first government has also pushed ahead in Europe: Italy requires people who want to enter China from a negative corona test.
China, Corona, mutations: These are buzzwords that cause emotions to run high. But are serious consequences to be expected for Switzerland? The Federal Office of Public Health (BAG) gives the all-clear: “We have no indication that the variant circulating in China causes a more severe course of the disease than the previously known omicron variants,” says BAG spokeswoman Simone Buchmann. Or to put it another way: It cannot be assumed that the current infection situation in China poses an increased risk.
This is also due to the fact that immunity is higher in Switzerland than in China. “The vast majority of people in Switzerland have been vaccinated, have had an infection, or both. You therefore have a high level of protection against a severe course, »explains Buchmann.
In contrast, in China people are trying to get from the lockdown to the rigorous opening at high speed. The Chinese population is now paying a high price for this shock therapy.
The scope for the virus is getting smaller
But one question remains: How likely is it that given the immense number of new infections in China, a variant will arise that will also turn the infection process upside down here?
Very small, according to the majority of experts. The virus is likely to have exhausted its potential, and there are unlikely to be any unexpected developments. Ultimately, however, no one can be absolutely sure – the pandemic has taken surprising turns too often for that.