The virus is racing across the continents. Brazil is at the attack, Turkey is in total lockdown, India is going through hell. Why these countries in particular? Leadership negligence, religious festivals, mammoth election events – it all plays a role.
At least as important is something invisible: the virus is changing. It mutates. The Brazilian variant is raging in South America, the British variant in Turkey, and the B.1.617 mutation in India.
“Viruses copy themselves non-stop,” says Sai Reddy (40), immune researcher at ETH Zurich. “But this process is not flawless.” The mistakes lead to mutations. Most of the time it has no consequences. In rare cases, however, they improve the pathogen’s ability to infect human cells. This was the case with the British variant. It has been listed as the normal corona virus in Swiss statistics for a month.
And if things go very badly, the viruses also slow down the immune system after further changes. In this case, antibodies may no longer be able to neutralize them despite being vaccinated. Researcher Sai Reddy: “This is the case with the Brazilian, Indian and South African variants – the most dangerous ones currently in circulation.”
The more resistant people, the more mutations
Only: why now? Why have we been experiencing a continuous fire of mutations for several months? “Selection pressure,” says Reddy. What he means by that: At the beginning of the pandemic, the pathogen had an easy time of it and was able to spread quickly. Then more and more people developed an immune response – they had overcome the disease or received a vaccination.
“That drives the virus into a corner,” says Reddy. “It looks for alternatives, which accelerates the mutations.” Uncontrolled outbreaks like those in Brazil or India are all the more devastating. “Lots of people die from it,” says Reddy. “But those who survive the disease produce antibodies against these new variants – which in turn increases the pressure on the virus.” The result: it mutates even faster.
But it can’t last forever. “It’s like a key,” says Steve Pascolo (50), an immunologist at the University of Zurich. “You can add a few new holes very discreetly. But at some point the key no longer fits in the lock. “
We ordered the right vaccines
Until that happens, the virus will continue to rage. So will we soon have conditions here like in Brazil or India? “No way,” says Pascolo. Switzerland has an excellent health system. But above all: “We have bet on the right vaccines.”
The Chinese vaccine Sinovac is used in Brazil and Turkey. “This vaccine is weak against mutants,” says Reddy. India produces Astrazeneca’s preparation. “This shows weaknesses in the defense against mutants like the South African variant,” says the immunologist Pascolo.
The government in London is also relying on the vaccine from the British-Swedish manufacturer. But apparently she doesn’t trust Astrazeneca herself. Although the kingdom is one of the vaccine turbos worldwide, it still severely restricts the mobility of its subjects and has a strict border regime. Holidays abroad are generally forbidden. In addition, the UK has built the world’s best surveillance system to detect mutations.
Fall numbers in Israel thanks to the mRNA vaccine
It looks completely different in Israel. The number of cases there has dropped dramatically. There are hardly any serious illnesses and Covid deaths. The Israelis have been leading a normal life again for a month. Because more than 50 percent of the population is vaccinated – with mRNA vaccines from Pfizer / Biontech and Moderna.
“They also protect against the mutants now known,” says the Zurich researcher Pascolo. This is due to the fact that they generate a greater density of antibodies in the human body. In technical jargon, one speaks of a higher antibody titer.
Another advantage: If further aggressive mutations occur, mRNA vaccines can be modified relatively easily. Even if new variants appear in the future – the mRNA designers can quickly adapt the vaccine.
This is good news for Switzerland: the country is about the same size as Israel and has relied on the same vaccines. In this country too, the mRNA doses from Pfizer and Moderna are administered. “We bet on the right horses,” says Pascolo. The immunologist knows what he’s talking about: Pascolo is one of the world’s pioneers in mRNA research.
As early as the summer, he predicted that the vaccine would be ready in 2020 (SonntagsBlick reported). Now Pascolo says: “If 50 percent of the population have been vaccinated twice, there will be a summer in Switzerland like in Israel.” One that will not be followed by another bad autumn.
Normalization only when half are vaccinated
ETH researcher Sai Reddy agrees with Pascolo: “That is a realistic forecast. The mRNA vaccines are clearly more effective against the mutations. It’s going to be a very good summer. ” Rudolf Hauri (61), President of the Association of Cantonal Doctors, is also convinced: “The mRNA vaccines work very well. We will see a clear normalization when half of the population is vaccinated. “
The US has already inoculated 300 million doses of mRNA. And now Ursula von der Leyen (62), President of the EU Commission, also pulls the mRNA card: The doctor with a doctorate has ordered 1.8 billion doses from Pfizer. “She knew every detail about mutations,” said Pfizer boss Albert Bourla (59) after the deal was concluded. The EU boss has apparently recognized the connection: According to current knowledge, a normal life should be possible despite mutations: with the right vaccine.
However, last summer was already big, hardly any new infections were reported. What is the difference between 2021 and 2020? Why doesn’t the same thing happen in autumn as last year when we ran into the second wave? Steve Pascolo waves it away. «Now we have the vaccinations. The manufacturers have massively increased their capacities! “
In Visp, capacities will be increased
And they keep building: Lonza is installing three new production lines in Visp VS. The production is to be doubled. A million Swiss are now fully vaccinated. “But things will be much faster in the future,” says Pascolo. In fact: on Friday another 500,000 cans of Moderna arrived in Switzerland.
However, there is a risk. The number of antibodies in the organism decreases over time – and further mutations are to be expected. Pfizer and Moderna are therefore planning a booster – an additional vaccination shot from autumn. This would increase the concentration of the antibodies and, if necessary, take the latest mutations into account.
“Switzerland should also try to get this booster,” says Sai Reddy. “Then we will not only have a nice summer, but also a Merry Christmas.”