Coronavirus vaccine helps save lives and ease hospital pressure. Figures from an American statistical model remind us once again.
Vaccines against the SARS-CoV-2 coronavirus are known to help save lives, since the protection conferred minimizes the risk of contacting severe forms of the disease. It is a major asset against hospital pressure. A study published on January 11, 2022 in the scientific journal JAMA provides a statistical model and therefore a quantified impact of vaccines.
Note that this study concerns the United States only. In the United States, the number of deaths caused by covid exceeds the figure of 800,000. More than 63 million people have been infected there. To date, just over 60% of the U.S. population is fully vaccinated.
240,797 lives saved compared to a scenario without vaccination
The researchers simulated two counterfactual (alternative) scenarios, one with no vaccination, and the other with a vaccination rate representing only half the rate. Then the dynamics of these two simulated scenarios were compared to that of reality – the real American vaccination program – from the cumulative infections, hospitalizations and deaths. “ The model was parameterized using American demographic data and the risks of serious Covid-19 outcomes according to age », Explain the authors. In addition to the statistical model, the ” vaccine efficacy against infection, symptomatic disease and severe disease “.
According to this research published in JAMA, the vaccine against covid, in the United States, saved 240,797 lives compared to a scenario without vaccination. Between December 12, 2020 (start of vaccination) and June 30, 2021 (study deadline), more than one million (1,133,617) hospitalizations were avoided. As for the impact on transmission, there are 14 million cases prevented.
” Vaccination prevented a wave of Covid-19 cases due to the Alpha variant, which would have occurred in April 2021 in the absence of vaccination, with an expected peak of 4,409 deaths and 17,979 hospitalizations », Add the authors.
This analytical model therefore suggests that vaccination in the United States is associated with “ almost halving hospitalizations and deaths in the first 6 months of 2021 “.
Unlike the period studied in this model, the epidemiological situation is now different with the Omicron variant, with increased contagiousness and which would potentially cause an immune escape – in particular without the booster dose (which boosts immunity against the forms serious). But these statistics are a reminder that vaccines do indeed save lives, and that they can lessen the impact of covid and its variants on hospitals.