War is back on the Old Continent and with it opens an era of accelerated rearmament in Europe. Many governments have announced large increases in their military budgets, such as Germany (+100 billion euros) and Sweden, which will increase its expenditure from 1.3% to 2% of GDP and is considering integration into the NATO, like its Finnish neighbour. In France, before the Russian invasion of Ukraine, the military programming law (LPM) 2019-2025 had planned to increase its effort from 40.9 billion this year to 50 billion in 2025 (i.e. 2.5% of GDP ), at the rate of an additional 3 billion per year. This catch-up law could be followed by more ambitious programming from 2025, Emmanuel Macron having announced on March 2 that he “will increase investment in its defence”.
It is the whole European industry – but also American – which will benefit from it. In particular Dassault Aviation (Rafale), Airbus (combat and transport aircraft, drones), Thales (radars, sonars, cybersecurity, etc.), Nexter (armoured vehicles and land armament, etc.), MBDA (missiles), Naval Group (frigates, submarines, etc.) sailors, etc.) and the thousands of SMEs and ETIs that supply the armies. An industrial and technological defense base (BITD) which employs 200,000 people in France and irrigates territories often far from metropolitan areas.
Manufacturers are beginning to assess the consequences of the current geopolitical upheaval on their activity. “We are alongside France, which is pursuing a double effort, both in terms of capability and technology, in the face of growing and increasingly complex threats”, explains Philippe Keryer, deputy general manager of Thales, in charge of strategy and technology. Dependent on the commands of the armies, they received five out of five the message of the chief of staff of the armies, general Thierry Burkhard, on the urgency to prepare for a real war.
“At the cutting edge of technology”
It had been relayed by the report of the mission of deputies Patricia Mirallès (LRM) and Jean-Louis Thiériot (LR), published two days before the start of the invasion of Ukraine. His conclusion was clear: France does not have the means to lead a conflict of “high intensity”, both long, deadly and expensive in materials. Polaris 21, the major combined naval air exercise carried out in the fall of 2021 in the Mediterranean, showed that the losses in men and equipment are significant from the start of the fighting. Colonel Michel Goya, a recognized defense expert, illustrated the attrition of forces in this type of engagement: in view of the estimated Russian losses, he wrote, “the French army would no longer have any major equipment after forty days” (combat vehicles, artillery pieces, etc.).
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