Republicans remain favored to take control of the US House of Representatives – with the Senate on a knife edge – amid widespread discontent with Biden’s presidency and months of steep price increases that , according to the poll, remain the primary concern of Republican and Democratic readers.
Labor Department data showed consumer prices rose a tenth of a point in August, bucking analysts’ expectations for a decline. The rise was fueled by higher prices for food, rent and health care.
The results of a new Reuters/Ipsos poll, however, show that Democrats seem just as eager to vote as Republicans, running counter to expectations that a weak economy would dampen enthusiasm in the president’s party. said Daron Shaw, polling and election expert at the University of Texas Austin.
Some 63% of Democrats and 65% of Republicans say they are absolutely sure they will vote in November, according to a Reuters/Ipsos poll taken September 7-12. In a survey conducted from January 31 to February 7, 55% of Democrats and 59% of Republicans said they were certain. The similar levels of certainty in the latest poll suggest that neither side could have an advantage in terms of voter turnout.
“Basically it indicates a very tight race,” Shaw said.
The poll, which collected responses from 4,411 American adults, had a credibility gap of between 2 and 5 percentage points, meaning the enthusiasm gap between the two parties is too small to say who got it. ‘advantage.
Democrats will defend an 11-seat advantage in the House of Representatives, while the 100-member Senate is split 50-50 between the two parties.
Of those polled in the new poll, 37% said they intended to vote for a Democrat in their riding, compared to 34% for Republicans. Fifteen percent were undecided.
Political pundits still believe Republicans have the best chance of controlling the House next year, in part because decades of elections have shown the party in the White House typically loses seats in midterm elections.
`A DRAMATIC CONTRAST`
Democrats are battling major headwinds this year – Biden’s low popularity and the war in Ukraine, which has helped push inflation to 40-year highs. Republicans seized on inflation to hammer Democrats on the campaign trail and in TV ads, blaming it on higher federal spending by Biden and the Democratic-controlled Congress.
“No issue defines the terms of this election so clearly as high prices for energy, groceries and other basic commodities,” said Republican strategist John Ashbrook.
Twenty-eight percent of respondents in the Reuters/Ipsos poll said inflation was America’s biggest problem, with 20% of Democrats and 37% of Republicans choosing it from a list of questions of the survey. Respondents picked Republicans over Democrats – 37% to 26% – as the party with a better plan to fight inflation.
Most respondents said the root cause of inflation was economic disruption due to the COVID-19 pandemic or the war in Ukraine, a view shared by many economists, while only a third said that federal government spending was the driving force.
One of the reasons for Democratic enthusiasm appears to be outrage over the US Supreme Court’s June ruling that ended abortion rights. Another factor is angst over Donald Trump’s influence on US politics, including his support for Republican candidates who deny Biden’s victory in the 2020 election.
One in five Democrats in the poll said America’s biggest problem was political extremism or changes to abortion laws.
Democrats say the advantage Republicans enjoyed for most of the year due to inflation was blunted by the U.S. Supreme Court’s ruling restricting abortion rights, misrepresentations ongoing comments from Trump over the 2020 election and his mounting legal troubles, as well as Biden’s recent legislative victories on drug costs and climate change.
Karen Finney, a Democratic strategist, also pointed to Biden’s recent speech denouncing Trump and his supporters as extremists.
“It’s such a dramatic contrast,” Finney said. “It engages readers.”