Editorial of the “World”. Who will lead the world’s fourth economic power and the first in Europe? Who will succeed Angela Merkel, after her sixteen years in power? If the results of the German parliamentary elections on Sunday September 26 do not immediately allow an answer to these questions, the political direction they indicate is nonetheless clear.
While the Christian Democrats of the CDU-CSU led by Armin Laschet, and no longer by Angela Merkel, record the most resounding defeat in their history by losing nine percentage points of the vote compared to 2017, the Social Democrats led by moderate Olaf Scholz earn more than five. In a dynamic in favor of the left – the Greens (14.8%) obtain the best score in their history – the first place obtained by the SPD puts an end to the continuous decline which had affected it since the years Schröder, chancellor of 1998 to 2005. Mr. Scholz’s party should logically lead the next coalition.
This scenario is however not written. If the two parties which have dominated German political life since the post-war period are resisting better than their counterparts in neighboring countries, they are no longer able to govern alone or even in pairs in a “grand coalition”, as in recent times. . As in other European countries, the scattering of voices shakes the German political system. It imposes a three-party coalition, a formula already tested at the level of the Länder, but never at the federal level.
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The alliance between SPD, Greens and FDP liberals appears the most logical. But the negotiations with the latter, closer to the positions of the CDU and now kingmakers, promise to be tough. Especially since the Christian Democrats are also claiming power and will try to build another coalition, also with the Greens and the Liberals.
If the final result of Sunday’s vote appears uncertain, it sends two clear messages. On the one hand, the Germans voted in the center, focusing mainly on parties with moderate programs and sanctioning both the AfD (far right) and Die Linke (radical left). The attrition of the parties in power does not generate a protest or populist vote.
The absence of any electoral controversy over immigration in a country that largely opened its doors to refugees in 2015, the emphasis in debates on the issue of climate transition and on that of the minimum wage are examples to ponder. for a France threatened by a presidential campaign dominated by identity themes.
And if the European question did not really enthrall the crowds, it is satisfying to note that the first four German parties by vote – SPD, CSU, Greens and FDP – are all in favor of strengthening European integration. In this regard, the risk of a long period of post-election uncertainty in Germany – the last transition, in 2017, lasted one hundred and seventy-two days – can only cause concern.
While Germany must come out of the vagueness of the Merkel period on its geopolitical responsibilities, while the European Union faces crucial choices in terms of sovereignty as well as climate transition and migration, instability, even paralysis of power, of too long duration in Berlin is in the interest of no one. And certainly not from France, which is due to hold the rotating presidency of the Union for six months from 1er January 2022 and will find itself in full electoral spiral.