Lin a car? “I love it! », declared Emmanuel Macron during a television interview on September 24. This passion undoubtedly prompted the Head of State to announce himself, Thursday, December 14, the launch of a system to make electric vehicles (EV) accessible to the most modest, a promise of the 2022 presidential campaign.
The gestation period of the project says a lot about the complexity of the equation to be solved. It is about democratizing the use of EVs, favoring “made in France”, all within a financial package that is sustainable for the State budget and compatible with the manufacturers’ offer. In the automotive sector, the “French ecology” that the president calls for is about squaring the circle.
From 1er January 2024, it will be possible, depending on the beneficiary’s income and the use they make of their vehicle, to take out a long-term rental for less than 100 euros, with the State covering the initial contribution paid to the rental company. At the same time, a bonus of 5,000 euros will be offered for the purchase of an EV costing less than 47,000 euros. The common point between these two offers: they will be reserved for vehicles with the best carbon footprint, a way of excluding models manufactured outside Europe.
This stimulation of demand for EVs, however, risks clashing with the reality of the current market. In recent years, manufacturers have continued to move upmarket. Buying a new vehicle has become out of reach for a growing part of the population. This trend has been reinforced with the electrification of the offer: an electric car costs more to manufacture than its equivalent with a thermal engine.
China’s decisive advance
With an average price of 65,000 euros, the offer from European manufacturers is completely out of step with the objective of increasing the use of electricity, despite aid. Renault admits having focused on the mid-range, which generates better margins, and not having renewed the Zoe, a small city car launched more than ten years ago. The electric R5 will not be available before the end of 2024, and the future Twingo is only a project. Citroën will scold its competitor with its ë-C3, but marketing will not begin until April. As for the price of the Peugeot e-208, it is around 35,000 euros excluding bonuses.
In the absence of a suitable offer, it is unlikely that leasing at 100 euros will shake up the market. The problem is that the most affordable vehicles are often of Chinese origin. Between the desire to make EVs accessible to as many French people as possible and the necessary vigilance over industrial sovereignty, the government is faced with a serious dilemma.
China has developed a different strategy from Europe by massively subsidizing the entry-level segment. This now represents more than a third of sales in China. The country has thus taken a decisive lead which allows it to offer attractive and much less expensive models. While the Chinese market is plateauing, local manufacturers are now ready to sweep into a Europe poorly prepared for the democratization of electricity.
Like the Maginot line, the system imagined by the government, apparently protective, remains easily circumvented. Most Chinese brands have plans for industrial establishment in Europe, which will allow their models to be eligible for public aid. “French-style ecology” could sooner or later be forced to deal with Chinese competition.