The availability of the nuclear fleet being today slightly lower than what was expected in September, the network manager warns for the beginning of 2023.
New alert on the electrical network. While many nuclear power plants remain shut down and the consumption of the French is monitored like milk on the fire by the authorities, the network manager published, this Friday, an update of its forecasts for the months to come. And these are mixed.
According to RTE, on the battery side, the situation will be relatively under control in the next six months:extreme situations […] are not the most likely“, and “in no case does France run a risk of “blackout”, i.e. total loss of control of the electrical system“. This winter, only a few signalsEcowatt red– indicating extreme tension expected on the network the next day – are to be expected, in the worst case.
Read alsoElectricity: French employers want to change the European pricing mechanism
Another encouraging element, the fall in electricity consumption is confirmed every week: in its latest publication, the manager thus indicates that “electricity consumption in France restated for weather and calendar effects is down compared to previous years», around 5.4% over the past week, and 6.6% over the month that has just ended. A situation explained mainly by the significant drop in consumption by large industry, compared to previous years. “A downward effect is also perceptible in the residential sector (and to a lesser extent tertiary), but will have to be confirmed in the coming weeks as temperatures drop“says the company. Household sobriety efforts therefore also play a role.
SEE ALSO – Bruno Le Maire promises aid to companies to “reduce» the gas and electricity bill
A major risk next January
So much for the positives. On the face side, the manager is worried about the situation expected next January, estimating the risk of tension on the network “raised“. The delays accumulated by EDF to restart the power plants play a role: “The availability of the nuclear fleet is today slightly lower than the central forecast of RTE at the beginning of September“, notes the company, which points in particular to the responsibility of”social movementshaving halted the reloading works during the month of October“.
The group thus expects an availability of the nuclear fleet reaching “40GW at the beginning of January“, lower than the latest forecasts of the energy company. What lead to “increased vigilance for the security of supply during the month of January”. At the beginning of 2023, “the anticipated reductions in consumption, particularly in the industrial sector, are not likely to offset the foreseeable drop in nuclear production“, points out the report. Several red Ecowatt signals could therefore be sent in January to request efforts from consumers, but these will depend on “largely from climatic conditions and the possible occurrence of even a moderate cold snap“.
The manager also notes that forward electricity prices remain high, integrating “excessive risk premium“. The gas network, meanwhile, does not worry RTE for the moment, which points out that the stocks are complete. Same reassuring observation for the hydraulic system, which, despite a dry summer, has regained its stocks.average for previous years“. The French are therefore called upon to be vigilant to get through the January period. From the end of February, tensions should ease… Until the next winter.