Eleven NFL teams for five spots
Pain injections pave the way to the playoffs
By Heiko Oldörp
January 6, 2024, 11:05 a.m
The NFL’s knockout round doesn’t begin for another week – but eleven teams have to play playoff football this weekend in order to reach the decisive championship phase. They are fighting for the last five knockout round tickets.
For some it’s like a second “bye week” of the season, for others it’s the very last chance to reach the playoffs. In short: a weekend between relaxation and tension. From feet up and saving energy to full focus and giving everything, but also really giving it your all, the NFL has it all on the last day of the points round.
With Baltimore, Miami, Cleveland, Kansas City, San Francisco, Dallas, Philadelphia, Detroit and the Los Angeles Rams, nine clubs have already booked playoff tickets and therefore deserve a somewhat quieter weekend. As winners of their conferences, Baltimore and San Francisco also have a bye for the playoff opener on January 13th – and are therefore guaranteed a place on the couch at home. They only enter the knockout round from the quarter-finals on January 20th.
Happy weekend for Jackson, Purdy and Mahomes
In order to protect their stars for the decisive championship phase and not to expose them to unnecessary risk of injury against sometimes extra-motivated opponents for whom a playoff place is still at stake, many teams will resort to backups. Three well-known quarterbacks, Lamar Jackson (Baltimore), Brock Purdy (San Francisco) and Patrick Mahomes (Kansas City), among others, will miss the weekend. And in Cleveland, the Browns are wrapping their 38-year-old playmaker Joe Flacco in cotton wool instead of using him in the away game at the Cincinnati Bengals, which is meaningless for the playoff rankings.
In Buffalo, Pittsburgh, Jacksonville, Indianapolis, Houston, Green Bay, Minnesota, Tampa Bay, New Orleans, Atlanta and Seattle, however, no one is spared. On the contrary. Here, pain injections are given, injuries are bandaged with extra strength, and teeth are gritted. Because for these eleven clubs it’s everything. They are fighting for the remaining five playoff spots. Their motto: do or die – losing is forbidden. But even a win is sometimes no longer enough to avert the end of the season. We give an overview – and a warning: It is sometimes very complicated and comes very close to splitting hairs.
Pittsburgh (9:7) – Baltimore (13:3): The Ravens won their division and their conference and secured home advantage in the playoffs. They are no longer playing for anything except the temptation to deprive their division rivals of their last hope of the knockout round in their stadium. The Steelers, on the other hand, are one of the teams for which there are different scenarios towards the playoffs. They are dependent on support.
A win alone is not enough. For the Steelers season to continue, Buffalo or Jacksonville would have to lose – or Indianapolis would have to draw against Houston. Even a Pittsburgh draw could be enough – but then so many other things would have to happen that would come very close to winning the lottery.
The great hope in the Steelers universe is Mason Rudolph. He will be the starting quarterback for the third consecutive year. In the past two weeks, he led Pittsburgh to two essential wins against Cincinnati (34:11) and in Seattle (30:23). In the previous 14 games without Rudolph as a starter, the Steelers never reached the 30-point mark.
Indianapolis (9:7) – Houston (9:7): The winner of this AFC South duel is in the playoffs. No ifs and buts. The winner could even win the division – and would therefore have a home game in the first playoff round. However, both would need support from Tennessee. Because there’s no way Jacksonville should win at the Titans. In the event of a draw, Pittsburgh – from Indy’s point of view – would have to achieve a maximum draw against Baltimore, then there would be playoffs with the Colts. If the points were to be split, Houston would have to rely on Jacksonville losing and Pittsburgh not winning.
Jacksonville (9:7) – Tennessee (5:11): After the games Pittsburgh against Baltimore and Indianapolis against Houston on Saturday evening, the Jaguars already know exactly what they have to do to reach the knockout round. The simplest formula is: One win – and Jacksonville is in. With an away win, the Jags, whose quarterback Trevor Lawrence is still questionable due to a concussion, would have won the AFC South for the second time in a row.
If there is no winner at Indy against Houston, a draw would be enough to win the division title. A draw would also be enough for the playoffs if Pittsburgh and Denver lost at the same time and Indy did not end in a draw against Houston. Understood?
Miami (11:5) – Buffalo (10:6): As we all know, the best comes last. Miami vs. Buffalo offers the NFL as its “main menu” – in the Sunday Night Game. No game gets more attention this weekend than the exchange of blows between the two AFC East rivals. Miami already has a playoff spot secured, but needs at least a draw to win the division.
Buffalo can still take the division title away from Miami with an away win – but would miss the knockout round if they lost. If the Bills tie, Pittsburgh is unlikely to win. Or not winning Jacksonville. Or Indy vs. Houston not having a winner. Drama, baby!
Carolina (2:14) – Tampa Bay (8:8): As in the AFC South, the title in the NFC South is still up for grabs. With Tampa Bay, New Orleans and Atlanta, three teams are fighting for the crown. Tampa Bay has the easiest route. A win at bottom team Carolina and the Buccaneers would no longer be dislodged from the top. If there is a draw, New Orleans could move past Tampa with a win against Atlanta. In order not to lose a playoff spot due to a draw, Seattle and Green Bay should not win.
New Orleans (8:8) – Atlanta (7:9): The winner would be division champions – should Tampa Bay not win in Carolina. If the Buccaneers lose, a draw would be enough for New Orleans to win the division – and thus have a home playoff game. If Tampa wins, however, New Orleans will have to hope that Seattle and Green Bay will at most draw.
If the Bucs draw, the Seahawks and Packers would even have to lose for Tampa to reach the knockout round. Atlanta has only one playoff chance: a win in New Orleans and a simultaneous defeat by Tampa in Carolina.
Green Bay (8:8) – Chicago (7:9): To avoid all eventualities, if the Packers win, they would be in the playoffs for sure. However, there are still five possibilities whereby a draw could be enough.
- Seattle and New Orleans are unlikely to win.
- Seattle and Tampa Bay lose.
- Seattle plays a draw and Tampa draws at most.
- Minnesota plays a maximum draw, Seattle and Tampa lose
- Minnesota plays a maximum draw, Seattle and New Orleans lose. Are you a little dizzy too?
Arizona (4:12) – Seattle (8:8): The Seahawks don’t have it in their own hands. Not with a win and not with a draw either. In the event of an away win, Green Bay is likely to draw at most against Chicago. However, if coach Pete Carroll’s team only manages to share points, Green Bay would have to lose and Tampa would only have to draw in Carolina. Another possibility would be a Packers loss and at most a draw between New Orleans and Atlanta.
Detroit (11:5) – Minnesota (7:9): Minnesota is like a small plant surrounded by giant trees in this playoff race. She hardly gets any light or air. But she’s still alive somehow. The Vikings have the worst starting position of all teams – but at least they still have a small chance. A win in Detroit is a must. But even then, the path to the knockout round is still incredibly rocky and steep. Because at the same time Green Bay, Seattle and Tampa Bay have to lose – or Green Bay, Seattle and New Orleans have to lose.