end of an era
Without “Teflon-Mark” the Netherlands is facing a new beginning
A guest article by Hardy Ostry and Kai Glasses
November 19, 2023, 10:07 a.m
The changes to the classic party system are much more noticeable in the Netherlands than in Germany. Wednesday’s election could be won by a party that has only just been founded.
The Netherlands will elect a new parliament in early elections next Wednesday. The election became necessary after Prime Minister Mark Rutte’s four-party coalition collapsed over a dispute over stricter asylum law immediately before the political summer break.
Since then, the government – consisting of Rutte’s right-wing liberal VVD, left-wing liberal Democrats 66, the Christian-democratic CDA and the Calvinist Christian Union – has been in office. In all likelihood, this coalition will have to give up government after the election. Mark Rutte, the EU’s longest-serving head of government after Viktor Orbán, has announced his departure from Dutch politics.
Similar to the Federal Republic of Germany two years ago, the Netherlands is also facing the end of a political era and will have a new head of government for the first time in over 13 years. According to current polls, it is completely unclear who will inherit the Prime Minister, who is sometimes referred to as “Teflon Mark” by political observers due to his ability to keep crises away from himself and his party.
63,000 votes are enough for a seat in parliament
The election to the Second Chamber of the States General (comparable to the German Bundestag) is traditionally a showcase for numerous political parties and movements that – unlike in Germany – have a very realistic chance of entering parliament. Due to a lack of a threshold clause, 20 parties are currently represented in the 150-seat parliamentary chamber. While in Germany five percent of the votes are necessary to be represented in state parliaments or the Bundestag, in the Netherlands it is around 0.67 percent or around 63,000 votes that are needed for a seat in the second chamber. Of the 26 parties, movements and electoral alliances running next Wednesday, at least 18 have legitimate hopes of being represented in the next parliament.
The political fragmentation in parliament makes both finding a majority and forming a government more difficult and has increased in recent decades due to the emergence of more and more small and micro parties, which often represent very specific issues or social minorities. Although the introduction of a barrier clause is repeatedly raised as a possibility, these ideas are not expected to be implemented any time soon.
A new party is leading the polls
Current Survey predict a three-way fight for election victory. The New Social Contract (NSC) party, founded just three months ago by former CDA MP Pieter Omtzigt, and the VVD, which will be led in the election by Justice Minister Dilan Yeşilgöz after Rutte’s departure, are tied with around 18 percent of the vote each. Close behind is the joint list of Social Democrats and Greens (PvdA/GroenLinks) around the former Vice President of the European Commission, Frans Timmermans, who can expect around 16 percent of the vote.
The Farmers-Citizens Movement (BBB), which was only a few years old and was the strongest force in provincial elections across the country in March, has now lost a lot of support and is now only in the single-digit percentage range. However, since it has a majority in the First Chamber of the States General (Senate), which is occupied by the provincial parliaments, and the Senate must approve all proposed legislation, it will continue to retain political influence.
The strongest force is the “formateur”
While Pieter Omtzigt (NSC) advocates for a new relationship between citizens and the state, wants to strengthen the rights of parliament vis-à-vis the government and wants to establish a previously non-existent constitutional court to review government actions, Dilan Yeşilgöz (VVD) sets right-liberal priorities and could be considered as Daughter of Kurdish-Turkish immigrants, she will become both the country’s first female prime minister and the first female head of government with a migrant background. Frans Timmermans (PvdA/GL), on the other hand, focuses on classic social democratic-green themes. According to current surveys, the issues of migration, housing construction (around 400,000 apartments are missing across the country) and green transition (especially in the agricultural sector, which is particularly relevant for the Netherlands) are key and could be decisive for the election.
Traditionally, the top candidate from the strongest political force in the Second Chamber is tasked with negotiating a coalition as a so-called “formateur”. Therefore, it is not unlikely that either NSC or VVD will be asked to organize a political majority. There are also significant overlaps between the two parties in terms of content, but given the current state of things, it will not be enough for them alone. On the other hand, especially among younger people between the ages of 18 and 35, greater sympathies for a left-green alliance are clear, as they see Timmermans in particular as almost a figurehead for a different policy.
Coalition negotiations in the Netherlands in recent decades have been characterized by one characteristic: they took time. After the 2021 elections, it took almost ten months until King Willem Alexander was able to swear in Mark Rutte, the new and old head of government and his cabinet.
Crisis of trust between the population and political parties
Both the end of the previous government and the emergence and great popularity of new political forces must be viewed against the background of a profound crisis of trust between the population and political parties. According to surveys, this reached its peak in the last general election in 2021. In the 1980s, around 80 percent of the population voted for the traditional popular parties around the center of the political spectrum, but today it is only around 40 percent.
The CDA, the Christian Democratic Appeal, is currently feeling this particularly clearly. The country’s former state party was mostly the strongest force in the Dutch parliament until the mid-noughties. In 2021 she only came in fourth place with 9.5 percent of the votes. In current surveys, approval is between three and five percent. While its competitors NSC and BBB, founded by former CDA officials, are doing better in the polls, the party is trying to regain the trust of citizens with new and fresh faces. Whether this will materialize in the short time available remains to be seen.
The Netherlands and Germany are important trading partners and close allies in the EU and NATO. The connections in the political and economic areas are diverse and are predominantly coordinated via the federal states of North Rhine-Westphalia and Lower Saxony, which border the Netherlands. The new government in The Hague can therefore build on the close cooperation of recent years and further expand relationships in future-relevant topics, such as in the area of green hydrogen. This will probably also be desired on the Dutch side – regardless of the election outcome.
Dr. Hardy Ostry is head of the European office of the Konrad Adenauer Foundation, Kai Glasses is a consultant in the European office of the Konrad Adenauer Foundation.