En 2015, we called it “the calm before the storm”. Recep Tayyip Erdogan’s party, the Justice and Development Party (AKP), had just suffered, for the first time since its accession to power thirteen years earlier, a serious setback during the June legislative elections. The AKP had certainly won the election with 40.9% of the votes, but the Islamo-nationalist group then recorded a decline of almost 10 points and lost its absolute majority in Parliament. A result well below the objective of the three-fifths majority that the Head of State had set for himself to carry out a new constitutional reform and establish a presidential regime around his person.
“Democracy is winning in Türkiye,” headlined an editorial in the New York Times. Daily life Cumhuriyet, close to the main opposition group, the Republican People’s Party (CHP), called out Mr. Erdogan on the front page: “Here it is, your “New Turkey”! »
But the euphoria only lasted. After several weeks of waiting and hesitation, the president regained control, dismissed the idea of a coalition government and organized new elections by force in November, which he won by a wide margin. The country slipped into violence: political assassinations, resumption of clashes between the PKK and the security forces, attacks.
Less than a decade later, is Turkey experiencing a comparable moment of post-election calm that heralds storms? After the surprise, the municipal elections of March 31, which for the first time relegated the AKP behind the CHP, put Mr. Erdogan back on the back foot. His party lost more than five million votes, its candidates were swept away in the country’s main cities. Foreign and opposition media spoke of an electoral slap in the face and a major setback. In Ankara, the presidential palace has been buzzing with all kinds of rumors for three weeks: the head of state is reportedly going through the results and analyzing the reasons for the defeat; those around him, nervous and divided, would be waiting for a decision.
“Voter fatigue”
However, several signs could suggest a different outcome. Unlike in 2015, Mr. Erdogan spoke on the very evening of the election to clearly say that he accepted the results of the election. Another notable fact was that the president called CHP leader Özgür Özel in person on the occasion of the end of Eid. To a journalist, Mr. Erdogan replied: “Our door is open to Mr. Özel. We have many topics to discuss. » The pro-government daily Sabah, rather accustomed to listing every fact and gesture of the head of state, devoted his headline to an interview with the head of the CHP, supporting photo. Unthinkable just a few months ago, a meeting between the two men could take place next week.
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