Can the rise last?- Some altcoins are resilient during this bearmarket and Ethereum is part of it. Ethereum resists against bitcoin and tries to continue to outperform the king of cryptocurrencies. While September is usually a disappointing month, can Ethereum change those stats with The Merge? For this, let’s analyze the graphs. analysis on chain is encouraging…
This analysis of the Ethereum price is brought to you in collaboration with the Coin Trading and its algorithmic trading solution finally accessible to individuals.
Ethereum Crashes at $1,900 Weekly
Ethereum bounced back a few weeks before the event The Mergebut the price is currently blocked at $1,900 :
We talked about it in This articleit is necessary to avoid FOMO on levels of resistors. The course was rejected at the level of the resistance at $1,900 and at the level of institutional bias (EMA 9 / EMA 18). On a weekly basis, the institutional bias is bearishthere was a high probability that he would reject the course.
As long as the price does not go above the weekly resistanceit is only a false bounce in a downtrend. Buyers need to clear resistance at $1,900 to re-enter the tidy Between $1,900 and $4,000. On a weekly basis, it does not seem improbable to return to the level of double bottom neckline at $1,280. This movement would cause a fall of more than 20% and that would hurt altcoins in general.
the momentum is always brittlethe RSI was finally rejected at the level of the bearish trendline. Here again, it will be necessary to cross the trendline frankly for buyers to benefit from the momentum.
the ethereum price must pass the resistance at $1,900 and break the bearish trendline at the price level. There is still work for buyers.
Rebound to $1,600 for Ethereum?
The price fell almost 25%but it could bounce back to $1,600 :
On a daily basis, the trend is bullish since the break of $1,280. Also, the price is still moving above the bullish trendline. For now, the course bounced back the level of first stop (0.382 Fibonacci retracement), but it must be confirmed by marking a new high. In an uptrend, retracements are usually up to 38.2%.
On the other hand, the institutional bias is ironed bearish and the course seems to block at this level. If the buyers fail to push, the price could go back to reloading area located between 1,320 $ and $1,130. The price will then return to the level of the bullish trendline and could act as support. It will be necessary to avoid breaking this level, because the sellers could then have the strength to make a new low under $880.
The momentum does not show anything special in this unit of time. If the price rebounds and approaches the weekly resistanceit will be necessary to be attentive to all differences. Indeed, Ethereum could then form a double top and thus sign the end of the retracement in the downtrend.
Will Ethereum continue to outperform Bitcoin?
The price of Ethereum against Bitcoin is in a tidy for more than a year. The primary trend of this pair is bullishbut everything can change in this range:
The price was out of the range, then Bitcoin regained control, falling almost 18% against the dollar. The institutional bias is still bullish and the price seems bounce off the EMA 9 level. However, it is absolutely necessary to confirm by closing above the last high to avoid forming a double top at the level of resistance. The two scenarios shown on the chart are therefore still valid.
Momentum could show the direction. Indeed, since the beginning of this range set up in May 2021, this is the first time that the RSI breaks the bearish trendline. The buyers now have the momentum and this could allow the price to start to rise again.
To analyse on chain : positive signals as The Merge approaches?
analysis on chain allows you to know the behaviour actors. We can know if the whales are rather oriented to the purchase or if they are in the process of distributing. Let’s analyze some graphs.
Number of addresses with more than 10,000 ETH
For Bitcoin, it is interesting to look at the number of addresses with more than 1,000 BTC. For Ethereum, the number of addresses with more than 10,000 ETH seems more appropriate. Here is the graph:
The whales distributed the top of Ethereum until the beginning of January 2022. From January the behavior of the whales changed and they started to accumulate of Ethereum especially at the end of March 2022.
More recently, whales went back to buying at the end of July. It seems quite logical that they try the famous: “buy the rumour, sell the news”. Indeed, any cryptocurrency enthusiast knows that Ethereum is in preparation for a major change and the players seem purchase oriented before this event.
Ethereum deposits and withdrawals on exchanges
Recently, from heavy deposits of Ethereum were made by market players (green peak). A peak that looks like March 2020 and that could have marked the capitulation. Now the actors are again in the process of take their Ethereum out of exchanges.
analysis on chain is very encouraging. It seems that the actors have capitulated and that the big wallets are in the process ofaccumulate.
Ethereum should cross the weekly resistance at $1,900 to show that the current move is not just a rebound in a downtrend. Against Bitcoin, Ethereum must frankly break out of the range. If this scenario plays out, Ethereum could continue to outperform Bitcoin for several months. Altcoins could largely benefit from this situation since Ethereum is the leader of altcoins. analysis on chain is encouraging a few weeks from The Merge. Indeed, the whales seem to be buyers and the players seem to have capitulated during the sharp fall leading Ethereum to $880. Nevertheless, let’s remain vigilant, the price is not in a clear uptrend and Bitcoin remains quite feverish for the moment.
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