EWhat if the North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO) was soon no longer the pillar of European security, unshakeable since its creation on April 4, 1949? What if a withdrawal of the United States reduced the interest in their armaments and encouraged the Old Continent to finally coordinate and strengthen its industrial apparatus to ensure its defense? Markets are not communicating vessels, but the protection of Europe (apart from France), from conventional weapons to the nuclear umbrella, could be less “made in America”.
The prospect of Donald Trump returning to the White House has changed the situation, as much as the war in Ukraine. The Republican candidate’s threat to no longer come to the aid of NATO’s “deadbeats” is taken very seriously in Europe, including by industrialists convinced that Washington’s obsessive fear remains the rise of China. “The United States is focusing more on the Asia-Pacific”notes the CEO of German Rheinmetall, in the Financial Times from April 2. Fearing that Europe will find itself “totally alone” in the event of conflict, Armin Papperger plans to open four factories in Ukraine and advocates the creation of “large companies in Europe”.
Airbus boss Guillaume Faury says it differently in an interview with Worldend of March : “Are we sufficiently sovereign in defense matters to make a positive contribution to NATO, without being so dependent on it that we become vulnerable? » He fears that“instead of building defense Europe, we continue to fragment it”. There is no better illustration of this, in his eyes, than the competition between the French Rafale, the German-British Eurofighter and the Swedish Gripen.
Behind the front another war is being fought, that of production. The American military-industrial complex has already won many battles there. Between 2019 and 2023, 55% of European purchases of military equipment came from the United States (compared to 35% previously), and two thirds since 2022, while imports have doubled. The European “giants” are middleweights compared to Lockheed Martin, Raytheon Technologies, Northrop Grumman, General Dynamics and Boeing, the world leaders bottle-fed at the helm of the Pentagon, which has a budget of 886 billion dollars (816 billion euros). ) in 2024. The British BAE Systems arrives in 7e position, the Italian Leonardo, Airbus and Thalès at the 11e12e and 14e ranks.
Hypothetical sovereignty
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