by Claude Chendjou
PARIS (Reuters) – The main European stock markets are expected to fall on Friday at the opening in the wake of Wall Street and Asian markets amid renewed concerns about inflation, the evolution of the economy and interest rates. ‘interest.
According to the first indications available, the Dax in Frankfurt should lose 0.75% at the opening, the FTSE 100 in London 0.38% and the EuroStoxx 50 index 0.56%.
Short-term US bond yields are moving to a nearly month-long high, with the two-year, the most sensitive to shifts in interest rate and inflation expectations, hitting a high since the 6th on Thursday. January at 4.514%.
“Is inflation calming down? That’s really the central question for this year,” wondered Thomas Barkin, the president of the Richmond Fed. According to him, the slowdown observed so far is mainly due to the fall in the prices of goods.
Macroeconomic concerns have been at the heart of market questions since the publication of monthly job creation figures in the United States, which came out well above expectations. The statistics of weekly jobless claims in the United States, published Thursday, did not reassure since the moving average over four weeks showed a drop to 189,250 against 191,750 previously. This confirms the dynamism of the labor market as the US Federal Reserve (Fed) seeks to curb demand to curb inflation.
The chief executive of JPMorgan Chase, America’s largest bank, deemed it premature to claim victory in the fight against inflation, estimating that interest rates from the Fed could rise above 5% if high prices persist. The monthly consumer price figures in the United States will be published next Tuesday.
In Europe, where the same questions about inflation, the economic situation and interest rates are fueling the debates, investors will follow this Friday the first estimate of British gross domestic product (GDP) in the fourth quarter of 2022. The Reuters consensus forecasts zero growth for quarter on quarter and a slowdown to 0.4% year on year after respectively contracting 0.3% quarter on quarter and expanding 1.9% year on year in the third quarter.
L’Oréal posted like-for-like sales growth of 8.1% in the fourth quarter, slightly slower than the previous three months, as strong demand in the United States and Europe helped to offset the impact of COVID-19 disruptions in China.
AT WALL STREET
The New York Stock Exchange ended lower on Thursday as rising US Treasury yields overshadowed strong corporate results and weighed on early gains on renewed optimism over US policy. Fed.
The Dow Jones index fell 0.73%, or 249.13 points, to 33,699.88 points.
The broader S&P-500 lost 36.36 points, or 0.88%, to 4,081.50 points.
The Nasdaq Composite fell for its part by 120.94 points (1.02%) to 11,789.58 points.
IN ASIA
At the Tokyo Stock Exchange, the Nikkei index ended with a gain of 0.31% to 27,670.98 points and the Topix, broader, advanced 0.1% to 1,986.96 points.
In China, the Shanghai SSE Composite lost 0.3% and the CSI 300 lost 0.58%.
The MSCI index comprising the values of Asia and the Pacific (excluding Japan) contracted by 0.91% and is expected to show a weekly loss of 1.36 after a decline of 1.16% the previous week.
In terms of statistics, producer prices in China fell more than expected in January, with a PPI index down 0.8% year on year, after falling 0.7% the previous month. The consumer price index (CPI) rose by 2.1% year on year, after rising 1.8% in December.
CHANGES
The dollar index, which measures the fluctuations of the greenback against a basket of reference currencies, rose by 0.097%, approaching its peak since January 6, hit on Tuesday at 103.96 points.
The euro fell 0.12% to 1.0723 dollars.
RATE
The yield on ten-year US Treasury bonds was stable on Friday in Tokyo trading, posting at 3.67% and the two-year one was trading at 4.49%, after their sharp rise the day before.
OIL
Oil prices fell slightly on Friday but are heading for a weekly gain as the market continues to oscillate between fears of a recession in the United States and hopes of a strong recovery in demand in China.
Brent fell 0.12% to 84.40 dollars a barrel and US light crude (West Texas Intermediate, WTI) 0.26% to 77.86 dollars.
(Written by Claude Chendjou, edited by Nicolas Delame)
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