Paolo Gentiloni, the Commissioner for the Economy, presented his new forecasts for the European Union (EU) on Wednesday 15 November. They are counting on meager growth of 0.6% this year and a sluggish recovery in 2024. In an interview with Worldthe former Italian prime minister reveals his concerns about the competitiveness of the Old Continent. “The world has changed, the EU cannot be the only herbivore in a world of carnivores”he declares.
European growth is expected to be well below American growth this year. Do you think Europe has dropped out? Are you worried ?
Yes, it is a challenge for us, without a doubt. Certainly, in 2022, growth was stronger in Europe than in the United States and, in 2024, the gap could be less significant. But we should not stop at these figures. There is no doubt, Europe has a problem with the competitiveness of its economy, and we must respond to it. The world has changed, the EU cannot be the only herbivore in a world of carnivores.
That’s to say ?
After the collapse of the Soviet Union, Europeans like the United States believed it was possible to normalize relations with Russia. This resulted, economically, for the EU, and more particularly for Germany, in access to cheap Russian gas.
Today we are experiencing the end of our political illusions about Russia. With the war in Ukraine, energy prices have risen permanently. We all need to change our energy model, especially as we face global warming.
Furthermore, globalization has changed dimensions. We must not implement deglobalization, but abandon the idea of globalization which consists solely of looking for the place on Earth where this or that component is the cheapest. This is no longer possible. We need to shorten our value chains and secure them.
In this context, how can Europe stay in the race?
There are certain things that can be done that there is consensus among the Twenty-Seven, such as reducing bureaucracy or completing the capital markets union. But, at this stage, there is a gap between, on the one hand, the stated desire of Member States and the Commission to move forward in these areas and, on the other hand, action. There are also fundamental and controversial decisions to be made. Europeans must develop common projects that they will finance jointly. This will be one of the main issues of the next Commission [qui sera mise en place après les élections européennes de juin 2024].
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