HAS As the European elections approach in June, calls for an independent and strong Europe are becoming more pressing. The prospect of a victory for Donald Trump in the presidential election on November 5 argues in favor of a strategy of independence from the European Union (EU). It’s not a foregone conclusion when you look at the numbers…
Europe, as we know, is militarily and energetically dependent on the United States. But it is also important for its commercial opportunities. The United States is the euro zone’s biggest customer, with exports more than double those to China. In 2023, they reached 450 billion euros, compared to 200 billion euros to China. And they continue to increase.
Germany is the most exposed country, with a trade surplus vis-à-vis the United States of 63.5 billion euros in 2023. Europeans buy software and electronic chips from Americans. In return, they buy machine tools, pharmaceutical products and cheese from us.
A share of trade with the United States also reflects the tax optimization strategies of American pharmaceutical companies, which produce their patented medicines in Ireland and resell them at a higher price in the United States. This artificially inflates trade, but only explains part of American imports from Europe. The increase in American demand for European automobiles and auto parts is dazzling. It reaches more than 50 billion euros over one year, while American exports to Europe are only 20 billion euros over the same period.
A universal customs tariff of 10%
Such a degree of dependence on one country, even if it is our ally, is not healthy. Let’s remember that in 2018, Trump threatened to introduce a 25% tax on European automobile imports and auto parts. Germany would have been the first loser. France would not have been spared, mainly on its component exports. The French factories of Toyota and Daimler export assembled vehicles to the United States.
If re-elected, Trump plans to implement a universal 10% tariff. We can also bet that he will look closely at the significant trade surplus between the United States and the European Union. But Europeans would be wrong to believe that a new Biden presidency would be radically different from a Trump presidency from this point of view.
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